Every election has its counting quirks, but this one more than most.
Democracy is not in the vote, but in the counting of it. Some of the Senate results seem bizarre and invite both challenge and reform. The donkey vote looks like deciding four or five seats — an election-determining margin. It invites a simple reform. Labor got more two-party preferred vote than the Coalition yet is not in Government. Labor got more first preferences than any other party yet is not in Government. One Nation got far more votes than the Nationals yet will get only one MP compared to 15 or 16, but will still get bucket loads of public electoral funding. Some significant people will miss out or come close to missing out while various hacks and drones have comfortable seats; the nation could be the poorer for it: Warwick Smith, Alexander Downer and Cheryl Kernot.
The donkey vote needs only run at half a per cent to affect a large number of seats in a close election. Some sequential votes down the card are genuine votes, but not many. For example, if there are six candidates there are 720 combinations. You would expect only 0.13 per cent of votes to be sequential, but we find three or four times that in practice, indicating a deliberate donkey vote. Any seat determined by less than 250 votes is likely to determined by donkey votes if the winner appears higher on the ballot paper than the loser.
This time the Liberals will get Eden-Monaro and Hinkler on the strength of the donkey vote and Labor will get Adelaide, Dickson and possibly Kalgoorlie. Poor Warwick Smith lost Bass in 1993 on the donkey vote, but does not pick up quite enough of it this time to win.
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