Annette Ellis and Bob McMullan will win the two ACT House of Representatives seats for Labor quite comfortable, according to Canberra Times-Datacol polling.
A poll taken last weekend ACT wide asked for voting intentions in Saturday’s federal election. It was mainly aimed at finding intentions in the Senate where there is a tight race between the Liberals’ Margaret Reid and the Democrats’ Rick Farley for the second seat (report Page 1).
Labor polled 46.2 per cent of the first preference vote, or 50.3 after distributing the undecided.
The Liberals are on 25.6, or 27.9 after distributing undecided.
It means minor parties are taking an unusually high number of first preferences votes. The Farley candidature appears to have spilled to the Reps with the Democrats on 11.3, or 12.3 after undecided are distributed.
Usually the northern seat of Fraser has a higher Labor vote than the southern seat of Canberra, which takes in all of the old seat of Namadgi which has been abolished. It seems Mr McMullan will not need preferences; Ms Ellis might. But both are comfortably ahead.
The polling shows more women than men prefer Labor and Labor is strongest in the 35-55 age group. The Liberal vote is strongest in the above 55 age group.
There is a high interest in the campaign in the ACT. Only 2 per cent say no interest and 9 say not much interest. Fifty-two per cent have a good deal of interest and 37 say some interest. Interest generally goes up with age.
Kim Beazley is preferred as prime minister over John Howard by 59-32. Mr Howard’s popularity goes up with age and is more popular among men.
Datacol has also been polling general political allegiance from time to time over the past six years. Despite wide fluctuations of voting intention, general allegiance has remained fairly constant. Those describing themselves as very strong or strong ALP have remained between 29 and 34 per cent through that time; very strong or strong Liberal between 17 and 24; swingers between 32 and 36; others between 4 and 7.