Labor’s fundamental problem is that it may pick up the 4.2 per cent swing it needs for government, but it will not be even enough to get the 27 seats it needs.
Polling suggests it will not get enough swing in the marginals to tip out Coalition MPs and will larger swings in safe Labor and safe Coaltion seats which will be wasted because it will not sound in seats.
The election will be won or lost in Victoria and Queensland.
These states have the lion’s share of the 27 seats under the 4.2 per cent margin that Labor needs to gain government.
Labor now has 49 seats, nominally 48 now one ACT seat has been abolished in the redistribution. It needs 75 seats in the 148-seat House for a majority after appointing a Speaker. It therefore needs 27 seats.
An even swing of 4.2 percent nationwide would do that. There are 27 seats held by the Coalition held by less than that margin. But swings are never even.
Labor lost 11 seats in Queensland last election and will need to win more than half of them back if it is to get Government.
Labor was reduced to just two of the 26 seats in Queensland last election. It needs at least six. The most likely prospect is Dickson (NW Brisbane) where Cheryl Kernot needs a swing of 3.62 per cent. Oxley (Ipswich) Pauline Hanson’s old seat is very likely. Ms Hanson is standing in adjacent Blair, newly created by the redistribution. Bowman (on the western side of Moreton Bay) is held by the Coalition by less than 1 per cent. Griffith and Lilley in urban Brisbane are both under 2 per cent. If Labor doesn’t get these plus one or two of the northern marginals, Mr Beazley will not make it to the Lodge.
Victoria did not swing with the rest of the country in 1996. Labor lost three and won three. But nine remained very marginal and with an unpopular Kennett Government (perhaps, made worse by the gas crisis, however irrationally), Labor will pin hopes on winning these if it is to win government. Three are outside Melbourne: Bendigo, Ballarat and Murray. Six are in suburban Melbourne: Chisholm, Latrobe, Deakin, McEwen and McMillan.
The seat of McMillan is a great example of Labor’s difficulty in winning this election. The margin is just 2.07 per cent. It is the sort of seat Labor must win to get government. Nationwide opinion polls show a swing to Labor of at least 2.07, but it is not happening in McMillan. The seat is held for the Coalition by Russell Broadbent. An Age-A.C. Nielsen poll, however, shows Mr Broadbent ahead on One Nation preferences. Both parties had lost primary votes.
A similar pattern was shown in polling the NSW marginal of Parramatta, once again the sort of seat, on 3.87 per cent, that Labor needs to win.
Indications are that Labor is picking up votes in safe Labor seats which it has won anyway and safe Coalition seats, but not to the extent that the seats can be won.
So Labor might get a nationwide swing of 4.2 per cent or more, but not get enough seats to govern.
Labor lost 13 seats in NSW last time, it needs some back, but realistically they were either won by such good margins last time or won by candidates who have so cemented themselves in that Labor has less chance there.
Lindsay (1.58) in Sydney’s west and Paterson (0.43) north of Newcastle are good examples, where Jackie Kelly and Bob Baldwin, respectively, have known for the term of the Government that they are on tight margins and worked that much harder. Polls show them both holding their seats. Also a state Labor government in NSW is likely to work against Labor.
Other seats to watch in NSW are Lowe in south-west Sydney, Robertson (around Gosford), Macquarie north-west of Sydney, and Hughes south of Sydney where former Sydney Water Board chief and ABC boss David Hill hopes to get a 5 per cent swing for Labor to take the seat.
Outside the eastern seaboard Labor has high hopes of winning the Tasmanian Bass (4.6) held by the Minister for Family Services, Warwick Smith, who goes in and out of the seat like a yo-yo and Braddon held by Chris Miles (5.7).
In South Australia Labor aims to get back Makin (1.08) and Kingston (2.01), but to be realistic about getting government it needs a seat like Adelaide (3.5), but it is held by Trish Worth who has built up solid support for the Coalition and will be very difficult to unseat.
In Western Australia Labor needs Canning (0.69) and Kim Beazley’s old seat of Swan (3.71). If the election is close, the Western Australian seats with a two-hour time delay, could be of critical interest on the night. All too often, though, the result is known before any WA results come in.
Labor did so badly in 1996 that realistically few if any of its seats are vulnerable. Ones to watch are Banks in south-east Sydney, bounded by the Georges River held by Labor’s Aboriginal affairs spokesman Daryl Mellham. He hold the seat on a margin of 1.41 per cent. The demographics of the seat are changing with more wealthy people moving in.
An earlier scare for Opposition Kim Beazley that One Nation might drain enough support away for him to lose the seat of Brand south of Perth appears to have dissipated. It is Australia’s third most marginal seat on a margin of 0.23 per cent.
Labor’s most marginal seat is Dobell in NSW based around the Entrance north of Sydney held by Opposition health spokesman Michael Lee. It is held by 0.08 per cent.
The Coalition has some hopes for the outer Brisbane seat of Rankin.