The fate of the GST now lies with the Democrats who have done exceptionally well in the Senate.
The Democrats will have 10 senators after July 1 next year when the new senators take their seats.
They could allow a food-free version through now or after July 1, provided the Government accepted the compromise. After July 1 the Democrats will have the absolute balance of power in the Senate. They can side with either Labor or with the Coalition for form a majority to pass or block legislation (including the GST) or set up or veto committee inquiries.
The only other majority block will be Coalition and Labor together against the minors. The Greens, One Nation and Independent Brian Harradine will be marginalised.
Before the election various majority combinations were available to pass or block legislation, giving Senator Harradine and the Greens great power.
The picture in the Senate clarified with overnight figures.
It is bad for the Coalition and the Greens. Labor marks time. One Nation gets just one seat, Heather Hill in Queensland. But bear in mind she might resign and the One Nation party can nominate Pauline Hanson to take her place.
Brian Harradine retained his seat. He has until July 1 next year to exercise his balance of power in isolated cases when Mal Colston abstains or is absent.
Six senators were elected in each state and all four territory senators were up for re-election on Saturday.
The Coalition lost three seats overall: a seat in each of Victoria and NSW to the Democrats, though the NSW seat is still in some doubt; and one in Queensland to One Nation.
The loss to One Nation will be especially felt because it is that of National Party senator Bill O’Chee, the only MP of Asian background in the Parliament.
Labor has exactly the same result as it had going into the election: three each in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania and two each in the other states (treating Colston as Labor).
The Democrats had two senators up for re-election: leader Meg Lees in South Australia and one in Queensland. They were both re-elected. And the Democrats won one seat each in NSW, Victoria, and Western Australia.
The Greens lost Dee Margetts’s seat in Western Australia to the Democrats, though there is some room for doubt.
The territories remained the same. The challenge by the Democrats to Liberal Margaret Reid came to nothing. Though the cautious Senator Reid did not claim victory on Saturday, she needs only a few preferences from One Nation to win. Even Labor’s Bob McMullan conceded she had won the seat.
Overall, matching the remaining long-term senators, the new Senate (which begins on July 1, 1999) is as follows (with the old seats in brackets): Coalition 34 (37); Labor 29 (29); Democrats 10 (7); Green 1 (2); Harradine 1 (1); One Nation 1 (0).
State by state the picture is as follows: South Australia and Tasmania stay the same. Queensland gains a One nation senator and loses a Coalition one. NSW and Victoria each gain a Democrat and loses a Coalition senator. Western Australia loses a Green and gains a Democrat. The territories stay the same.
Late counting and the complexities of the Senate voting system could result in that picture changing.