Liberal Brendan Smyth will be re-elected in Namadgi, according to a Canberra Times-Datacol poll.
However, the poll shows that Labor has made up significant ground since the by-election in March and there is a significant undecided vote.
At the by-election, Mr Smyth won a swing of more than 16 per cent. That was in the seat of Canberra, but the redistribution carved the whole of the new seat of Namadgi out of the old seat of Canberra.
The poll gives the Liberals 39.1 per cent; Labor 33.4; Greens 5.4 and Independent 3.3. There were 18.8 per cent undecided.
The Greens vote is down substantially from 12.9 per cent at the by-election. The primary Liberal vote is down 7 per cent from the by-election and the Labor vote is up 3 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis it has gone from 59.5-40.5 at the by-election to about 52-48 now.
That difference towards Labor can be explained by several factors.
1. Less of an anti-government trend factor that happens at all by-elections.
2. A feeling at the by-election that in Sue Robinson Labor had chosen a leftist, party-machine candidate who was distant from the people. This time Labor is running former Act Legislative Assembly Member Annette Ellis who has done the community work on the ground.
3. The changes in composition of the electorate since redistribution. All of the Namadgi is in the old seat of Canberra, but with the creation of a third seat some chunks of the old seat have stayed with the new central seat of Canberra. Those chunks are notably old inner south Canberra.
4. A high Green vote last time at the height of the logging dispute that has gone back to Labor, or that was parked temporarily with the Greens while Ms Robinson was the Labor candidate.
5. An interest-rate scare at the time of the by-election.
Overall the results are showing that what is an underlying Labor electorate going the Liberals’ way. This is shown by the results of other policy questions asked which were published yesterday and questions asked about underlying political allegiance.
They tended to favour Labor positions on Telstra, the Public Service, their preferred prime minister and the republic … though arguably the last is non-partisan.
Paul Keating is preferred as Prime Minister over John Howard by 50 per cent to 39; Namadgi voters are heavily in favour of a republic at 57 to 20; nearly half of voters, 48 per cent, do not want any of Telstra sold; more people thought the ALP would manage the federal public service better than the Coalition (37 to 25). On Telstra, though, Namadgi voters less opposed to sale than the national figure.
The Liberal Party appears to be holding its own stalwarts more strongly; whereas Labor stalwarts were not seeing the light on the hill quite as clearly. Those who indicated very strong or strong general ALP allegiance were less likely (87 and 63 per cent) to vote Labor than those who indicated very strong or strong Liberal allegiance were to vote Liberal (98 and 95). Labor could hold only 21 per cent of those weakly ALP; whereas 56 per cent of those who were generally weak Liberal were going to vote Liberal this time. Virtually none of those who generally described themselves as weak, strong or very strong Liberal were going to vote Labor this time. But quite a few similarly described Labor people were going to vote Liberal.
Women preferred Liberal more than men do. There was a seven percentage point difference. The young prefer Labor, sliding from 41 per cent in the 18-34 age group to only 20 in the 55 plus group. The old prefer Liberal, sliding from 54 per cent in the 55 plus group to 30 in the 18-34.
The strong Liberal vote in what has been till 1994 a strong Labor seat might also be explained by a writing-on-the-wall effect. People think there might be a Howard government so it would be better that at least one of the three ACT MHRs be Liberal.
Labor could still win the seat. The poll shows that a third of the 28 per cent who describe themselves as swingers is still undecided.
But ominously on the general scene for Labor, more voters who describe themselves as swingers (41 per cent) have decided to vote Liberal than Labor (15 per cent).
In summary, there is a very clear trend away from the Government to the Opposition. It came hugely to the fore at the last by-election and a significant amount of that sentiment is still out there. To the extent it has gone back to Labor since March could be put down to the change in Labor candidate and the fact it is not a by-election so government depends on it.
The poll is not good for Labor.