The seat of Namadgi is on a knife-edge, according to the latest Canberra Time-Datacol poll, with the Liberals’ Brendan Smyth just ahead.
The poll shows the undecided vote has swung 70-30 in favour of Labor’s Annette Ellis since the previous poll two weeks before and that the Mr Smyth has had his by-election whittled away to less than 1 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. His lead on first preferences is now at 2 per cent.
The poll returned to the same respondents who were polled two weeks previously, rather than take a new sample. This heightens the accuracy of the poll and gives a more accurate feel for changing opinion.
In the period between the polls, the Coalition announced its public service policy and its policy to cut back the public sector through natural attrition. Labor seized upon the policy saying it would have a ripple-through effect to the ACT private sector.
Further, several other factors that helped Mr Smyth in the by-election are absent. In by-elections people feel they can lodge a protest vote without tossing a government out. In the by-election Labor stood Sue Robinson who was seen as a party-machine candidate. Ms Ellis is seen as more of a community candidate. In the by-election there was a protest at Ros Kelly’s involvement in the sports rorts affair and the manner of her leaving Parliament.
If the undecided keep going Labor’s way, Ms Ellis could just squeak over the line. However, election specialist Malcolm Mackerras thinks that voters will see that the Liberals are going to win the overall election and that it would be preferable not to have three ACT Opposition Members. His hunch is that Mr Smyth will win.
Datacol also polled the other two ACT seats and asked about preferred prime minister and the republic.
In Canberra, there has been about a 4.5 per cent swing against Labor since the 1993 election. In Fraser, John Langmore retains a very comfortable margin with virtually no swing against him.
The ACT position has been complicated by the by-election last March and the redistribution which created a third seat.
Namadgi was carved totally out of the old seat of Canberra.
Mr Smyth won the pre-redistribution by-election in Canberra with a swing of 16.7 per cent upon the resignation of Labor’s Ros Kelly in the wake of the whiteboard sports-rorts scandal. He is now standing in Namadgi.
About 60 per cent of the old Canberra went to Namadgi and more than half of the new seat of Canberra comes from the old seat of Fraser.
In Fraser, the poll shows a slight swing against Mr Langmore of less than one per cent, which is not statistically significant, and in any event could be explained by the boundary changes which have made the seat about 1 per cent less safe for Labor.
In the primary vote Mr Langmore is 19 per cent ahead of the Liberal candidate Cheryl Hill, with nearly 14 per cent undecided. After an allocation of Green preferences and the undecided, the two-party preferred vote is 62-38 whereas in 1993 it was 63-37.
In short, Fraser remains a solid Labor seat and the 1996 campaign has not altered it. It seems the negative campaign run by the Liberals has had no effect or even a negative effect. Also, fears of public-service cuts appear to have kept people in the Labor camp. Even people who derive their income from the private sector favour Mr Langmore by 9 per cent (44-35).
In Canberra, the poll shows that Trade Minister Bob McMullan should beat the Liberals’ Gwen Wilcox but with the two-party-preferred margin of 5 per cent with 17 per cent undecided. That is 4.5 per cent less than the 1993 result obtained by Ros Kelly.
POINT — republic tables Page X.