It seems likely that the balance of power in the Senate will change when the new senators elected yesterday take their seats on July 1 next year.
The Coalition has successfully defended its good 1996 (SUBS: correct 1996) Senate result, the Democrats have possibly lost two seats and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson is close to election as a Senator in Queensland.
It will change the overall political position in the Senate. The Government can get a majority with One Nation or the Greens. The Democrats can no longer join Labor on its own to get a majority.
Green Senator Bob Brown has easily retained his seat in Tasmania.
On early figures it seems the Coalition has won three Senate seats in each state and one each in each of the territories – retaining all the seats it won in 1996. Labor has one two seats in each state and one in each of the territories, replicating its 1996 result.
There is a slight outside chance Labor might get a third seat in Tasmania at the expense of the Liberals.
Senators have a six-year term, with half of the Senate being elected every three years. Territory senators, however, are elected for a standard three-year House of Representatives term – two each from each territory.
The Democrats had the difficult task of defending five senate positions. Leader Senator Natasha Stott Despoja won 86 per cent of a quota in South Australia, which will easily get her across the line with Green preferences. In NSW and Victoria the Democrats have about half a quota, most like enough to get across the line with Green and other preferences, given that One Nation is not getting preferences from any other party.
The Democrats are in a more difficult position in Queensland. The National Party’s Senator Ron Boswell is back along with two Liberal senators and two Labor one. The sixth position will be a tussle between Ms Hanson and the Democrats’ Senator Andrew Bartlett. Ms Hanson has about 80 per cent of a quota against Senator Bartlett’s 40 per cent of a quota, but Ms Hanson still may not win because no other party has given her preferences and preferences run very tightly in the Senate. So she will get very few preferences from spill-over from winning senators or the Greens. For example, in 1998 in NSW, the Democrats’ Aiden Ridgeway won a seat from about half a quota from One Nation on about three-quarters of a quota.
In the ACT Senate race, Labor’s Senator Kate Lundy (42 per cent) and the Liberals’ Senator Margaret Reid (34 per cent) got quotas on the primary vote. The Democrats got 11 per cent, the Greens 7, One Nation 2 and Independent Ken Helm 2.
It was the same in the Northern Territory, with the Coalition and Labor getting a quota each.
In Western Australia, early counting had the Greens ahead of the Democrats. If the Greens get the sixth Western Australian seat and Ms Hanson wins in Queensland, it will mean the Democrats will lose two Senate seats overall reducing their Senate Representation from nine to seven.
Overall that would give the following result: Coalition 36, Labor (including an ex-Labor independent) 29, Democrat 7, Green 2, One Nation 2.
Later counting could change this position.