Why the fuss over preferences? In a straw poll around the office, I asked the question: how many seats were determined by preferences at the last election? That is, in how many seats did the leading vote-getter at the first count change after the distribuition of preferences so someone else got elected?
About 20 was a typical reply. The fuss over preferences suggests that they decide elections. Not so. Preferences have very little effect in the House of Representatives.
At the last election, just five seats changed from one major party to the other.
(In a sixth seat, Parkes, the ALP candidate on first count was ahead of each of the Liberal and National candidate, but way behind the combined coalition vote.)
In short, the candidate ahead at the first count usually stays ahead after the counting of preferences. In 1998, prefernces did not affect the result of the election. And 1998 was a very close election, so close that the winner got fewer votes than the loser in both two-party-preferred terms and as first preferences.
Of the five seats that changed hands four went from a Liberal leader on first count to a Labor winner after preference distribution. The seats were Bass (Tas), Kingston (SA), McMillan (Vic) and Stirling (WA). And one seat, Hinkler (Qld), went from a Labor leader on first count to a Liberal winner after preferences.
That is a net change to Labor of three seats – not enough to affect the election outcome.
Generally, Labor won its four seats on Democrat and Green preferences and the Liberals won its seat on One Nation preferences.
In 1996 the result was even more remarkable. Not one seat changed chands on preference count.
Lots of seats run to preferences. Last election, 98 seats ran to preferences, including that of Prime Minister John Howard. But in 93 seats it did not matter a jot.
A seat has to be remarkably close for preferences to matter. In the five seats that changed last time 1.04 per cent was the maximum that separated the candidates after distribution of preferences. That does not happen often.
Not one seat in 1990 changed hands from first count to after distribution of preferences.
Kept seats they might otherwise have lost. Maybe. But where were the Greens goin gto go? Exhaust? That does not happen.