Month: October 2000

Professor Neutze had worked at the Australian National University for 40 years, most recently as professor in the Urban Research Unit in the Research School of Social Sciences. He was director of the Institute of Advanced Studies and Deputy Vice-Chancellor (1989-92). Professor Neutze came to Canberra to teach economics in 1960 from Oxford where he was a Rhodes scholar.

Professor Neutze had a high international reputation in urban design as well as engaging in his local community in the debates about the development of Canberra. In addition to his intellectual rigour he brought a great humanity to his work, and well understood that the prime aim of both economics and urban design should be the well-being of people. He took on those driven by economics and the money of development, arguing strongly against rampant in-fill and higher development for its own sake. He did so in a fearless, but gentlemanly way. He cherished academic freedom in a time when commercialisation was eroding it at universities. He was a constant fighter for more untied funding for universities and a champion of the value of pure research.

His book Urban Development in Australia changed the way people thought about the functioning and economics of Australian cities – a matter of critical importance in one of the most urbanised nations on earth.
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The Coalition’s baby bonus exemplifies a mindset, rather than a sensibly policy to deal with the juggling between work and childcare. Clearly, the Coalition was not listening to the (mainly) women who are doing the juggling, whose constant cry has been for better maternity leave, more childcare places and the tax deductibility of childcare costs.

The baby bonus, announced by Prime Minister John Howard has a major plank in the launch of his policy platform, is directed at giving incentives to women to stay at home with their children for the first five years. Under the plan women who have a baby after July 1, 2001, receive a tax refund (as a refund of the tax they paid the previous financial year) of up to $2500 year for five years. If a woman goes back to work during the financial year she will lose the refund for that year. Those not in the workforce will get a flat payment of $500.

It is an absurd policy to encourage people not to work – particularly from a Government that railed against welfare dependency. Like the health-insurance rebate, it is badly directed. Many women will be in fairly high-income households and can stop work, get the rebate and still live fairly well on their partner’s income. It is middle-class welfare. It also encourages women’s dependency on partners and discourages their independence. Fortunately, the amounts of money involves are so small, that the incentives for women to give up work will be small.
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Last week Noel Pearson, lawyer and Aboriginal leader, raised a stir in the context of the election campaign when he said he would reject an apology over the stolen generation whether it came from Labor or a re-elected Coalition. He acknowledged that a Beazley Labor Government had promised an apology, “”but an apology at this stage of our national indigenous policy failure would only hide the present lack of insight and ideas among the Australian progressivist and liberalist middle class”.

Unfortunately, the media coverage over the apology tended to take the limelight from Mr Peason’s more important message. It is a message that challenges some widely held beliefs among Aboriginal groups and among Australia’s liberalist middle class. One of those widely held beliefs is a chain of causation that explains the Aboriginal condition. The chain starts with colonisation and dispossession. That lead to a breakdown of traditional ways. This troubled historical legacy results in a societal breakdown, alcohol abuse, violence, criminal conduct, poor health outcomes and so on. Under this theory, the dispossession has to be dealt with if the alcohol and substance abuse, violence and poor health is to be addressed.

Wrong, says Mr Pearson.
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The Australian economy will face a great deal of pressure in the next few weeks. It will require a great deal of skill, diligence and nerve on the part of those in power to ensure that it does not succumb to pressure that will result in many Australians suffering economic hardship. There are several inter-related points of pressure. The most obvious is the relationship between the US dollar and the Australian dollar. Our currency has fallen considerably in the past few months against the US dollar. There is some evidence that the fall has halted, but one could not be too confident about it. The saving grace is that other currencies have also fallen against the US dollar, some by more than ours. It means that our position against the currencies of other major trading partners – the euro, yen and New Zealand dollar — has held up. Also currency changes usually self-correct or at least find a new equilibrium. The price of US exports will go up so Australians will shun them and the price of Australian goods in the US will go down, making them more attractive.

The next pressure is the price of oil. It has the potential to flow through all areas of the economy as transport costs get passed on to consumers.

These two pressures have resulted in price increases, but their full effect has not been reflected in official inflation figures. However, the one-off inflationary effect of the GST has sounded in official rates with the latest figures out this week. Those figures revealed a lower rise in inflation than was expected. Nonetheless combined with petrol and import prices, there is at least an anecdotal and psychological effect among consumers and employees. It is fairly apparent that the price effect of the GST has been more than compensated for by tax cuts and changes to welfare. The danger is, however, that many will not see it that way. Rather they will see the spike in the consumer price index and point to petrol and import price rises and rises in mortgage repayments due to recent small rises in interest rates. They will then argue for wage rises to compensate. It is important that any wages rises are tied to demonstrated productivity rises and are not given because of the rise in the GST-related CPI or because of international circumstances. To do so would fuel inflationary pressure. That in turn would lead the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates. That in turn would result in lower buying power and probably to some businesses faltering and therefore lower employment growth. It is also important that executives lead by example. They should show restraint, too. A beneficial result of the changes to corporate law to force disclosure of executive pay has been some exercises in shaming that might result in more restraint.
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The news from Northern Ireland that the Irish Republican Army has begun decommissioning weapons is welcome indeed. We do not know the exact quantity of arms and it is apparent that the IRA still has a lot of weaponry still available for use, but the step is hugely symbolic. It is also of great practical importance because it puts the peace process back on the rails.

Significantly, Northern Ireland’s Protestant politicians have agreed to go back into government after resigning because of the refusal of the IRA to begin decommissioning.

Chief Minister David Trimble resigned in July and his other ministers resigned last week. The latter resignations appeared at the time to doom the peace process.
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It is time for Prime Minister John Howard to engage in the domestic election campaign. It is less than three weeks until voting day, and it is not enough for him to wrap himself in the flag and pretend Australia is facing some major external threat and full-scale war. Australia will have a maximum of 150 soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan. Our Navy will be doing some patrolling thousands of kilometres from land-locked Afghanistan and our Air Force, even if it did fly over Afghanistan, would not meet any threat. If anything the operation should be described as a police action, rather than a military one, and its running is largely being directed by the Americans anyway. The operation – if it must be run — could be run as effectively by Labor leader Kim Beazley as Mr Howard. The two parties have absolutely no difference in policy on the so-called war or terror, so it should not be a significant issue in the election campaign.

The danger for Mr Howard and the Coalition voters seem to be beginning to recognise this and are ranging their thoughts back to domestic matters. If Mr Howard plays only the war and refugee cards, he might find his absence on domestic issues costing him the election. It will certainly deprive voters of a fully informed contest.

The latest AC Nielsen poll published in the Fairfax newspapers indicates that Labor is picking up support. Just after the Tampa refugee crisis in the middle of last month, the Coalition was 16 percentage points ahead of Labor and set for an increased majority. Two weeks ago it was 15 points and now it is just six. On a two-party preferred basis the Coalition is just two percentage points ahead. The two-party preferred vote is significant. It reveals that much of the Coalition gain has come from One Nation – that is probably the anti-refugee, anti-immigration, anti-Asia vote. The Coalition appears to have won that from the refugee crisis. But the subsequent international events do not seem to be having the same effect for the Coalition. People are rightly questioning whether Australia should be sending troops to Afghanistan. It is not the automatic vote winner that Mr Howard thinks.
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Australians, particularly Canberrans, still have plenty of room for improvement on the roads. The latest AAMI insurance survey reveals poor attitudes and poor driving. Given an annual road toll of 1700 or so and an injury toll 10 times that, there would be plenty of benefits from improvement, both financially and in terms of pain and suffering.

True, the road toll has comes down in the past decade or so, though not steadily. In the past couple of years it has remained static. We should be aiming for a zero road toll. A death on the road should be a rare, not a common thing. The present road toll is to an acceptable cost of the convenience of road transport. With better attitudes and better driving the toll could come down hugely without significant loss of convenience.

The usual culprits stand out in the latest AAMI survey – males under the age of 25. They had 18.5 claims per 100 policies. Females in the same age group had a rate of 13.7. Young drivers tended to blame older drivers for causing accidents because the older drivers drove too slowly. But the truth was the opposite. Older drivers had fewer claims than younger ones. Drivers aged 51 to 64 have 7.8 claims per 100 policy-holders. Drivers over 65 had just 7.2. Sure, those over 65 might do less driving, but that cannot be said of the 51-64 age group. The message is clear: young , male drivers think they the best and in fact they are the worst.
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There are more reasons for Kate Carnell not to be Cabinet than for her to be in it.

Surely, if she resigned because she faced a no-confidence motion because of her handling of her previous ministry, the same lack of confidence should apply to a new ministry. The two independents whose vote would have been critical in bringing her down – Dave Rugendyke and Paul Osborne – have argued that the loss of the Chief Ministership is penalty enough. Mr Rugendyke said , “”I watched her in the chamber this morning. She looked like a truly broken woman. I feel genuinely sorry for her.” It is an inappropriate crime-and-punishment approach to ministerial responsibility. But it is a matter of governance and politics, not crime and punishment. If they no longer had confidence in her administration, that would hold for the Treasury portfolio under which she was responsible for a great deal of the Bruce Stadium redevelopment, and the chief ministership and any other portfolio. If they thought it were a matter of punishment, it would have been more appropriate to censure her.

It is untenable and inconsistent to say a person should not hold one ministry but can hold another. If they thought that, they should never have come to the position where they would vote for a no-confidence motion in the first place.
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Labor Leader Jon Stanhope has the moral claim to government after yesterday’s election, even if Labor gets an equal number of seats as the Liberals. It seems that the Liberals’ vote in Molonglo held up enough for them to retain three seats. However, overall the Liberal vote was substantially down on the 1998 result and Labor was substantially ahead of the Liberals in primary vote. Labor was more than 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals in Ginninderra and Brindabella and slightly ahead in Molonglo.

In any event, the three independents who held up the Liberal Government are all gone. Michael Moore retired and Dave Rugendyke and Paul Osborne were defeated. The two defeated independents were socially conservative and have been replaced by more centrist Democrats. It indicates the mood of the electorate is to move to the left.

But the moral claim to government is one matter. Getting the numbers is another.
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A very high percentage of ACT voters remain undecided just a couple of days out from the election, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol opinion poll. It indicates that many will need to do some serious thinking today and early tomorrow about who they want to govern this territory after Saturday.

Unlike the House of Representatives election, the ACT have multi-member electorates. It means all voters should decide which or the major parties they prefer; which candidates within each party they prefer and which of the minor parties or independents they prefer. To get the best value out of a vote therefore a voter should express preferences right to the end, not just five or seven. It is often the case that the last seat is a tussle between minor parties and independents can be decided by preferences flowing from voters who have voted for a major party first and marked preferences to the end.

Despite constant criticism – which is fine in a democracy – both the Liberals and the Labor Party are capable of governing. The Liberals have been careful with the finances on the large scale, but have squandered on frivolities on the smaller scale. Under Kate Carnell they were particularly fond of PR stunts and funding bonanza events. Chief Minister Gary Humphries has fortunately be disinclined to follow suit, but the baggage is there, particularly on the poor processes on Bruce Stadium. The Liberal Government’s budgetary position has also been helped by additional Federal grants.
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