Labor Leader Jon Stanhope has the moral claim to government after yesterday’s election, even if Labor gets an equal number of seats as the Liberals. It seems that the Liberals’ vote in Molonglo held up enough for them to retain three seats. However, overall the Liberal vote was substantially down on the 1998 result and Labor was substantially ahead of the Liberals in primary vote. Labor was more than 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals in Ginninderra and Brindabella and slightly ahead in Molonglo.
In any event, the three independents who held up the Liberal Government are all gone. Michael Moore retired and Dave Rugendyke and Paul Osborne were defeated. The two defeated independents were socially conservative and have been replaced by more centrist Democrats. It indicates the mood of the electorate is to move to the left.
But the moral claim to government is one matter. Getting the numbers is another.
The critical number count comes at the first meeting of the Legislative Assembly when the first business will be the election of the Speaker by secret ballot. The next piece of business will be the election of the chief minister, once again by secret ballot.
It would be tempting for Mr Stanhope to cut a deal before that vote to ensure his election. But that would inevitably come at a price.
It should not be a question of cutting deals with the Democrats to support Labor. The election of the Chief Minister should be based on reflecting the will of the electorate, not on rustling up numbers. In yesterday’s election, the primary vote of the two major parties almost exactly reversed – a 40-30 percent split in favour of the Liberals is now a 40-30 percent split in favour of Labor.
On these figures it would be very difficult for the Democrats to support Liberal leader Gary Humphries fore the chief ministership.
Mr Stanhope should wait patiently until the Assembly first meets. There will be enough wheeling and dealing over legislation during the three year term of the Assembly, without having deals arranged before government is formed.
It would be quite proper for the cross-bench to side with the Opposition from time to time to defeat Government legislation or to promote their own legislation. But it would be a mistake for Labor to be bound at the outset to items on the Democrat agenda.
Mr Stanhope should be congratulated on piecing his party together over the past three years. He now has to deliver on his promised on health and education while retaining a responsible fiscal result. He must resist the temptation to overspend.