The result in Molonglo was largely determined by the party-linear vote and the women’s vote.
The party linear vote is where voters mark one to seven down the Labor ticket, irrespective of the order the candidates might be on their ballot paper. Under the Robson rotation of the ballot paper each of Labor’s seven candidates got an equal chance at the top of the column with seven different batches of ballot papers being printed.
The order of candidates in each batch is important. The two smaller tables shows how they are printed.
It appears that about a third or 6500 of Labor’s 19,500 voters voted this way.
The women’s vote was about 4 per cent, but it was critical in keeping Marion Reilly ahead, causing Steve Garth to be excluded.
The women’s vote is where the voting favours a female candidate beyond what would ordinarily be expected.
The main reason that these two factors influenced the result so profoundly was that the seven Labor candidates were so close in the first place.
The large table shows what happened. (Bear in mind some of the totals are influenced by non-Labor candidates being excluded and by votes being exhausted by not showing further preferences.)
Line 1 shows the Labor vote after a lot of other independents have been excluded but before any Labor candidate has.
Line 2 shows Flaherty being excluded and his 2217 votes being distributed. Note, at (a), how Quinlan gets 1051 preferences, about 850 more than any of his colleagues, who each get about 200. This is because when Flaherty (No 7 in the Electoral Commission’s draw) is at the top of the column Quinlan (No3) appears second (the fifth column across in the matrix).
Line 4 shows a new set of totals following the exclusion of several non-Labor candidates.
Line 5 shows O’Keefe going out. Note, at (b), how Garth gets 1292 preferences, about 900 more than his colleagues. Once again, when O’Keefe (No 2) is on the top of the column, Garth (No 6) is second (the second column in the matrix). So in this instance Garth gets the benefit from people voting straight down the Labor column (a party linear vote).
These 1292 votes are critical. They are marked O’Keefe 1, Garth 2. Some are intention, but about 900 are party linear. And they will reappear later in the count and make a critical difference.
Next to go is Tania McMurtry at Line 7. There is a similar pattern with the party linear vote favouring Quinlan, except McMurtry is female and her female colleague Marion Reilly gets far more than her usual share. She gets 877 preferences, at (c). You would have expected her to get about 400, the same as the others. These extra votes keep her ahead of Garth at a critical stage. At Line 8 (after some other non-Labor candidates have been excluded) she is a critical three votes ahead of Garth. So Garth is excluded at Line 9.
Garth’s 5218 votes are distributed. In party linear terms the distribution initially favours Reilly. When Garth (No 6) is at the top of the column, Reilly (No 5) is second. (The third column of the matrix.)
But wait. Remember when O’Keefe was excluded and a bundle of party-linear votes went to Garth? Well, they are still sitting in Garth’s pile of 5218 votes. If you go to the second column of the matrix, note that when O’Keefe (No 2) is at the top of the column and the now-excluded Garth (No 6) is second, who is third? None other than No 4, Simon Corbell. Corbell now picks up these party-linear votes which almost exactly counter Reilly’s advantage of being second to Garth on the matrix, Line 9 at (d). He gets almost the same number of preferences as Reilly and as he has always been ahead on primary votes he is 100 votes ahead of Reilly. So Reilly gets excluded next and Corbell is elected on her preferences, going over the quota of 9459 votes.
Quinlan gets elected on Corbell’s over quota, and Independent Michael Moore, the last candidate still standing is elected last.