Kate Carnell will not be Chief Minister after the February election, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol opinion poll, even though she herself is popular with the voters.zzz
The poll shows that the Liberal vote has collapsed in all three electorates since the last election, though is up to five percentage points higher in Molonglo than in the other seats, probably due to Mrs Carnell’s personal popularity.zzz
A large number of voters, about 25 per cent, are undecided. But that is less than at a similar time before the previous election.zzz
After distributing the undecided vote pro-rata, the Liberals are down against the 1995 election by 11 points in Molonglo, 13 in Brindabella and 14 in Ginninderra. On this result the Liberals would lose one seat in each electorate.zzz
Labor has picked up significantly, but it has not picked up all the Liberal losses. It has probably picked up enough to give it an extra seat in Molonglo with an outside chance at an extra seat in Ginninderra to give it majority government.zzz
Labor has increased its vote by 8 per cent in Molonglo, 10 per cent in Brindabella and 12 per cent in Ginninderra.zzz
The Democrat vote has come from nowhere to be in range of getting their first ACT seat.zzz
Independent Paul Osborne is polling well in Brindabella and on the poll’s figures is assured of retaining his seat.zzz
Independent Michael Moore is on shakier ground, but he is in a similar position as at this time before the last election. The Greens are in difficulty, having lost about 5 points (or more than half their vote) since the last election.zzz
The most likely result is Labor 7, Liberal 4 and six seats to various independents and minor parties.zzz
On that result, the Liberal Party has a huge amount of work to do if it is to prevent Labor leader Wayne Berry from becoming Chief Minister, given that most independents and minor-party MLAs take the view that the chief ministership should go to the leader of the party with the most seats or popular vote.zzz
The Liberals will be aiming at the undecided, appealing to the electorate’s primary concern for economic matters and the desire for strong government, which were revealed the poll. (Details will be published later in the week.)zzz
Labor can get comfort from a strong anti-incumbency feeling, expressed in this poll and generally in recent elections and polls.zzz
But the lack of solid support for the major parties and some disaffection for the Greens and Michael Moore leaves ample opportunity for new independents or as-yet unrepresented minor parties to pick up seats. That could be the Democrats, an expansion of social conservatives in the Osborne mould (check spelling) to the other seats, or some other as-yet undeclared force.zzz
The history of ACT elections reveals a propensity for voters to give seat-winning support to non-major groups. In the first election it was the no-self-government groups; in the second it was the Residents’ Rally and in the third it was the Greens.zzz
The poll shows that 10 per cent would be willing to vote for an unnamed independent of any sort in Ginninderra; 6 in Molonglo and 2 in Brindabella. The low vote for unnamed independents in Brindabella is because they appear to be happy with the independent they have got in Paul Osborne. Mr Osborne’s support was at 13 per cent, or 18 per cent after pro-rata distribution of the undecided.zzz
All three seats reveal a support outside the majors of up to 28 per cent. That is very much higher than in any other state or territory or federally.zzz
On the poll’s figures the seats would go as follows.zzz
Molonglo (with a quota of 12.5 per cent): Labor 3, Liberals 2 and the remaining two to be fought among the Democrats, Mr Moore, other independents and the Greens in that order of likelihood.zzz
Ginninderra (16.6): Labor 2, Liberals 1 and the other two to be fought among the Democrats, independents and Labor.zzz
Brindabella: Labor 2, Liberals 1, Osborne 1 and the last seat to be fought among Greens and the Democrats.zzz
The Democrats chances will be enhanced by Mr Moore’s decision not to stand candidates outside Molonglo. But in previous elections Democrats typically start well in polling and then fall off as the election nears, often because of internal wrangling or poorly received candidates.zzz
Tomorrow: Who you prefer as Chief Minister.zzz