The only way the ACT could get majority government at the next election would be for Kate Carnell to lead the Labor Party.
That seems to be the message from the latest Canberra Times Datacol poll.
The Liberal Party will lose one seat in each electorate, according to the poll. But their leader is well-liked. On the 1 to 5 scale she is a 3.0, higher than any other MLA but Paul Osborne who is on 3.15. She is preferred as Chief Minister over Wayne Berry by 12 percentage points, and has an approval rating of 53 per cent against Berry’s 38.
However, it will not be enough to retain government. The Liberals have an enormous amount of work to do, and some radical surgery, to even get within cooee.
Internally in the party I understand there is a lot of questioning of Carnell’s leadership, particularly on social issues. However, it appears to be misplaced. She is their only asset. Rather the Liberals should look at their other six MLAs.
In particular, they should ditch Trevor Kaine and Harold Hird as quickly as possible. The poll showed that when asked to rate all MLAs according to their electorate, on a scale of 1 to 5, these two ranked very poorly. Only one MLA, Labor’s Andrew Whitecross (2.21), ranked below Trevor Kaine (2.4), and look what the Labor Party very wisely did to him.
Indeed, Labor had the benefit of some other polling indicating that Whitecross was virtually unknown and not well loved.
Harold Hird (2.51), who used to have quite a large personal following in pre-self-government assemblies, now rates ahead only of Kaine, Whitecross and the Greens’ Lucy Horodny (2.49).
Older, socially conservative men may appeal in traditionally conservative federal electorates on the North Shore or the established parts of Adelaide, but the ACT is a younger, more socially progressive electorate. The polling on the republic and the heroin trial reveals that, when compared to national ratings.
Kaine’s position is worse than Hird’s or the earlier position of Whitecross. Kaine has a very high recognition level, at 82 per cent — in the top half of the Assembly. They know him; and still they don’t like what they see. There has been a lingering, subterranean jostling about the Liberal leadership with Kaine never accepting his loss of the job and a constant aspiration to one day retain it. This poll should put paid to that as a Lear-like fantasy.
After the poll, Carnell instantly distanced herself from her party colleagues in the Howard Government which obviously is being blamed for a lot of Canberra’s woes. But there is more to the story than that.
This is not just a question of people being disaffected with the Howard Government and it rubbing itself off on the local Liberals. Sure, federal public servants appreciate Carnell bagging her federal colleagues. But there seems to be some considerable concern at Carnell’s policies by people working in the local public sector.
The poll shows that people in households that draw most of the their income from the Commonwealth Public Service prefer Carnell to Berry (53-34) but people from households drawing most of their income from the ACT Government prefer Berry to Carnell (49-34). People working for the ACT Government do not like Carnell. (Fortunately for her, there are fewer of them.)
It points clearly to some disaffection from within among people who might be expected to have a greater knowledge of Carnell’s policies and the way that work than among federal public-sector workers or people in the private sector.
That may not be a disaffection with Carnell personally, but more an expression of scepticism and hostility against the rank of can-do merchants she has surrounded herself with. That is likely to be very difficult to turn around in five short months.
For the Liberals, there is a need to do more than blame the Feds and for Carnell to be high profile and seen to be doing things. These things are not helping the Liberals in the outlying seats of Brindabella and Ginninderra where on this occasion government is likely to be lost.
Before this poll, it looked like government would be determined by the last seat in the seven-member electorate of Molonglo. But this poll seems to indicate that Molonglo will matter less; government for the Liberals will be lost because they fail to get second seats in Brindabella and Ginninderra.
In Ginninderra, the voters seem to be saying, “”Bring us a saviour, any saviour, we do not like what we have got.”
In Ginninderra, fully 23 per cent are saying we want anyone but the present candidates (after pro-rata distribution of the undecided).
In Brindabella, they are latching on Independent Paul Osborne (the saviour of the 1994 grand final).
Well may James Valentine on the ABC’s 2CN talk (in a horror-movie voice) about the potential for a “”third force”.
Without even naming candidates, the Democrats are polling 11 per cent in Molonglo and 9 in Ginninderra. And also in Ginninderra, 10 per cent are saying, “”Give us an independent, any independent.”
In this climate, it is possible that Osborne might be advised by political lobbyist Richard Farmer and others close to him that a couple of clones would have a good chance of getting a seat in the other two electorates. It is too late now for an aspiring candidate to score a try in the dying minutes of a final, but two people with the requisite amount of religious, social and economic conservatism could easily be found.
Incidentally, I don’t think former popular newsreader and journalist Ken Begg will fall under the Osborne-Farmer banner. He is probably too independent.
Incidentally, notice how Osborne has moved away from his former position of supporting the major party with the most support (either in votes or seats). He now feels mature enough to make up his own mind.
That may mean, of course, that his advisers do not like the idea of him supporting Wayne Berry as Chief Minister after the next election even if Labor get more votes and more seats than the Liberals, which on the latest figures is very likely.
Other third-force possibilities include the One Nation Hansonites. Pauline Hanson’s machine people have read the ACT position much better than she has. They want to run. She wants to hold fire till the federal election. History shows us there has always been room in the ACT Assembly (both before and after self-government) for right-wing self-described family-values candidates.
Then there are the anti-Hansonites who put up a good showing under Alice Chu in the Fraser by-election in February.
A further possibility is a team with Save Our City Coalition convener Jacqui Rees, perhaps widened to include some business elements given the disaffection of some small business over the Manuka redevelopment. After all, the Government put the view that she should put up or shut up.
In this environment, Labor cannot afford to sit on its hands waiting for government to fall into its lap. It has to worry about what kind of government, as in how many “”unreliable” minor-party and independent MLAs it requires to keep it.
But this is up and down of the minority government that this poll indicates we are destined to keep.
On one hand, a government cannot guarantee unfettered strong leadership. On the other hand it remains genuinely accountable to the Assembly (and therefore the people) if it goes over the top. Conversely, the Opposition does not have to yap ineffectually on the sidelines for three years. With intelligent use of the cross-benches it can achieve some legislative change.
Voters, candidates and MLAs better get used to it, because majority government is as likely as Kate Carnell leading Labor.