Forty of the 76 Senate seats are up for election. That is six in each state and two each in the Northern Territory and the ACT.
In the territories, one Labor and one Coalition senate are invariably elected in each territory.
It is very unlikely that either major party will get a majority.
The table shows the overall position.
The 36 senators up for election in the states were elected for a six-year term in 1990. The 36 elected in 1993 stay put to serve the remainder of their six-year term. The short senators up for re-election are shown state-by-state and with party affiliation in the bottom table.
Let’s look at the Senate in three blocks … Labor, Coalition and others:
LABOR:
Labor did very badly in 1990, and so is defending a poor result (only 13 of the 36 available). It will therefore be easier for it to maintain or improve its position.
To maintain its position Labor needs two seats in each state, except NSW where it needs three. The quota for one seat is 14.3 per cent. To get two seats it needs an inevitable 28.6 per cent. To get a third it needs 43 per cent to guarantee it, or about 40 to make it likely. Even if Labor loses the Reps, you would expect it to pick up a Senate seat or even two, most likely in Victoria and Tasmania.
THE COALITION:
The Coalition is defending a moderate result in 1990; the same result it got in 1993. But it still has to pick up three more seats without losing any to get a Senate majority. This is very unlikely because it would mean getting four of the six seats in three states. Getting a fourth seat in an election for six senators is no easy task. You need an impossible 57 per cent of the primary vote to guarantee it and 50 per cent to have any chance.
The best it can hope for is three in each state, making 18. Adding its 17 existing seats and Brian Harradine it gets 36 seats, plus its two Territory seats. In the event of a Coalition victory in the House, this would give it a blocking vote in the Senate for any Labor legislative initiative or embarrassing motion or inquiry, but to get its own legislation through it would need Democrat or Green support.
Moreover, Harradine (who has a union background) is unlikely to support wholesale industrial relations reform … a key part of the Coalition platform.
OTHERS:
The Democrats did quite well in 1990. You will recall that was the year everyone was browned off with the major parties. Labor numbers man Graham Richardson ran around the place saying even if you are voting Green or Democrats, please give us your second preference. That was a good tactic for the Reps, but did not work in Senate because the first preference for the Senate resided with the Greens and the Democrats and translated into seats … five Democrats and one Green to be precise … one in every state.
In 1993 the Democrat Senate vote collapsed because of their internal squabbles, but it is of no moment here. Under Cheryl Kernot the Democrats are getting more support, according to the polls.
They should retain their seats in at least Queensland (where Kernot is up for re-election), NSW and South Australia. Victoria is very likely, though they will be vying for the last spot with high-profile Green Peter Singer.
They could easily lose a seat in Tasmania (Robert Bell) to high profile Green candidate Bob Brown. In Western Australia they will be vying with the Greens’ Christabel Chamarette for the last seat. Chamarette would have to be favoured, but she got on 5.5 per cent last time and got the seat on the quirk of preferences and the way the major-party vote split.
SUMMARY: On the night, the key things to watch are whether the Coalition’s primary vote stays over 40 per cent in each state except NSW to keep its present representation. If it goes over 40 per cent in NSW, the Coalition will pick up a seat.
Reverse that for the ALP. It needs 40 per cent to keep its third seat in NSW and over 40 to wrest a seat from the Coalition in other states.
Watch the fight for the last seat between the Greens and the Democrats in Tasmania, Western Australia and Victoria. Generally it will come down to who is ahead on first preferences, certainly for the Democrats because they get better preferences from the major party over-quotas. If the Greens are only narrowly ahead of the Democrats on first preferences they can still lose the seat.
In all, the likelihood is that the Greens, Democrats and Brian Harradine will share the balance of power in the Senate … working it in various combinations … whoever is in government. However, if the Coalition wins government, it can expect the Labor Party to have a long memory when it comes to using Senate numbers in a disruptive way. That may ultimately result in a double dissolution down the track, especially if a Coalition’s industrial-relations law is knocked back.
Also, there could easily be some constitutional challenges to seats won after the distribution of above-the-line preferences in cases where a split ticket has been lodged.