Labor will lose government if it loses seven seats to the Coalition.
Because of the redistribution some Labor-held seats are notionally Coalition and vice versa. But there is disagreement at the precise effect of the redistribution so experts disagree on the figure of seven. Some put it at nine.
In any event, swings are invariably uneven. The following are a list of seats to watch, either because they are marginals or have some other interesting element. The south-eastern states are dealt with first because time zones mean their results will go up first on election night.
Tasmania:
Bass. The most marginal seat in the country. Won by 40 votes in 1993 by Labor’s Sylvia Smith against then Opposition communications spokesman Warwick Smith. Both are standing again. Sylvia has alienated the Greens by supporting forestry workers. Warwick has maintained a national profile through his job as telecommunications industry ombudsman.
The other four Tasmanian seats should remain 3 Labor, one Coalition.
NSW:
NSW holds the key to the election if there is to be a change of government. Of the 50 NSW seats, Labor holds 33 and the Coalition 16 with one Independent.
Labor is expected to hold its safe metropolitan seats. In regional NSW, however, there are enough marginals at stake to change the government. Percentage swing needed for seat to change is in brackets.
Macquarie (0.2): A seat based in the Blue Mountains and the Hawkesbury west of Sydney held by Maggie Deahm.
Page (0.2): Centred on Grafton and includes a large rural area, stretching to the Queensland border. Held by Harry Edwards since 1990. Before that very much a National Party seat. This time the Libs are contesting it, too.
Gilmore (0.5): The litmus seat. In a uniform swing of 0.5, this seat would be the fall-of-government seat. It stretches from Kiama to Durras on the coast, including Nowra and inland to Moss Vale. Has been held by Labor since 1993 by Peter Knott (the candidate who took Paul Keating to the bakery owned by a man who thought the GST was a good thing). Before that a National Party seat since its creation in 1984.
Macarthur (1.3): Labor has little hope of holding this seat. The Libs are standing ex NSW Premier John Fahey against Labor right unknown Noel Lowry, replacing the left’s Chris Haviland. The seat stretches from Berrima to the outskirts of Campbelltown.
Richmond (1.8): North coast, adjoins Page. Held for National Party by Doug Anthony for ages. Taken by Labor in 1990 because of demographic changes _ hippies and retirees moving in. Son of Doug, Larry, hopes to take it. Another interesting three-cornered contest with the Libs also putting up a candidate.
Calare (4.1): The seat is centred around Bathurst. Labor’s David Simmons is retiring and taking his personal following with him, but the National candidate has been tarnished by criticism in an ICAC inquiry. The Libs are also standing. The picture is fuzzed by popular TV newsreader Peter Andren running as an independent
Eden-Monaro (4.3): A critical seat. Rural plus Queanbeyan. Has gone with the party that takes government for the past 20 years. Jim Snow has run a strong local campaign, but found himself in trouble with the timber industry over Labor’s environmental policy. He has been targeted by Liberal advertising for attempting to distance himself from Paul Keating.
Also of interest in NSW are the inner Sydney seats of Grayndler and Lowe where the No Aircraft Noise Party could damage Labor. Grayndler (23 per cent) is dead safe Labor being contested by left numbers man Anthony Albanese, replacing retiring former minister Jeannette (CORRECT) McHugh, but NAN’s leader Kevin Butler can scrape in on preferences if he gets ahead of the Liberals. Very unlikely, but possible. Oddly, non-major party candidates have a better chance in what are otherwise safe seats, rather than in marginals, witness the independents who won North Sydney and Wills. In Lowe (5.1) NAN preferences may hand the seat to the Liberals.
North Sydney is the former blue ribbon Liberal seat taken by independent Ted Mack in 1990. He is retiring. Watch to see if independent Richard Tanner takes his place or the seat goes back to the Libs.
Also, Paul Keating’s seat is Blaxland (22.2) and John Howard’s seat is Bennelong (3.2)
Victoria:
Polls are showing Labor looking better in Victoria than other states. Labor is hoping to pick up the suburban Melbourne seats of Deakin (1.0 per cent), La Trobe (1.3) and McEwen (1.4). Deakin is its best hope because the sitting Liberal Ken Aldred lost his pre-selection. Labor hopes that any anti-Kennett state government feeling will work in its favour.
The seat of Bendigo held by the Liberals’ Bruce Reid is another to watch. The redistribution has made it notionally a Labor seat. The Coalition needs a swing of 1.0 to retain it. Similarly the suburban seat of Bruce held by the Coalition’s Julian Beale is now a notional Labor seat requiring a 1.6 swing for the Coalition to retain it.
The Coalition has its eyes on Chisholm, at 0.2 per cent it is a second-most marginal Labor seat in the country. The next Labor seats out, Jagajaga (3.0) and Isaacs (3.9) are likely to stay Labor. Labor, on the other hand, will be looking to capture Ballarat (1.8).
In summary, though, Victoria is not looking like a decisive state in this election.
Wills, Bob Hawke’s old seat, is of interest. Twice-elected independent Phil Cleary is standing again. Labor’s Kelvin Thomson had done a lot of work and hopes to recapture the traditionally safe Labor seat.
South Australia:
The only thing of interest is whether Minister Gordon Bilney holds Kingston (1.5). Labor would like Adelaide (1.4) back.
Queensland:
Queensland has a swag of Labor-held regional marginals that polling shows are vulnerable.
Leichhardt (1.4, Cairns to the top); Petrie (2.2, north of Brisbane); Herbert (2.4, based on Townsville); Capricornia (2.8, based on Rockhampton) and Dickson (2.9, west of Brisbane).
Dickson is held by the Attorney-General, Michael Lavarch.
The fate of the seats depends on whether Labor holds up in the regional cities and suburban centres. The Queensland election was not a good omen for Labor.
Western Australia:
The national result might well be known before polls close in the West. Canning (0.2) and Swan (0.3) are extremely marginal. But there are other interesting seats. Three disendorsed Liberals are standing as independents: Bryan Hilbert in Swan, Paul Filing in Moore (8.8) and Allan Rocher in Curtin (15.3).
In Kalgoorlie (10.0) disendorsed Labor MP Graeme Campbell is standing as an independent. The Labor candidate is former WA Deputy Premier Ian Taylor.
And in Fremantle former WA Premier and Health Minister Carmen Lawrence is defending a 7.8 per cent margin.
In the ACT, watch Namadgi where Liberal Brendan Smyth is defending his huge swing in last March’s Canberra by-election in the renamed seat. The seats of Fraser and the new seat of Canberra are safe Labor.
The Northern Territory has a single seat held by Labor on 5.4. It has been a Coalition seat in the past.