The Liberal Party is ahead of Labor in Tuggeranong-based Brindabella and Labor is ahead in the other two seats, central Molonglo and Belconnen-based Ginninderra, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll. The poll indicates the ACT is headed for independents holding the balance of power.
The poll also indicates a defiance of the Labor party “”how-to-vote ticket” in Brindabella, with Labor’s No 1 candidate, Andrew Whitecross, polling third behind the two sitting MLAs, and on the poll figures he would not be elected.
The first preference break up is: Brindabella Labor 33 to Liberal 37; Molonglo 39 to 29; and Ginninderra 36 to 29.
If the results were converted to seats the likely Assembly make-up would be: Labor 7 (at present 8); Liberal 6 (at present 6); Michael Moore 1 (present 1) and three seats too hard to call because of the high percentage of undecided voters (21) and other parties and unnamed independents (5).
The election in on February 18. Molonglo has seven seats with a quota or 12.5 per cent and Brindabella and Ginninderra have five seats with a quota of 16.6 per cent.
Labor has a solid two seats in each of Ginninderra and Brindabella and three seats in Molonglo. The Liberals have a solid two in Brindabella and Molonglo and a very likely two in Ginninderra.
Trends in previous polling and elections show that “”undecided” and “”others” tend to stay with independents in the ACT, unlike federally when the major parties tend to firm as the election gets closer.
With sitting MLAs Helen Szuty and Dennis Stevenson at less than one per cent, it indicates room for a dark-horse independent in Brindabella and Ginninderra and perhaps even a second independent in addition to Mr Moore in Molonglo.
Although Mr Moore is on only 5 per cent, there is a further 3 to 4 per cent Green-Democrat vote which would most likely go his way which combined with other preferences would give him a quota. He is in a much stronger position than Labor’s fourth or the Liberals’ third candidate in Molonglo.
At this stage, Labor would have to be preferred to take the most seats and presumably minority government because the Liberals are too weak in Molonglo to be sure of a third seat, and their good polling in Brindabella is also not enough to translate into an extra seat.
On individual candidates, respondents who nominated Labor or Liberal were asked a further question: which candidate would you put first, second and last. Labor’s candidates were read in the order of the Labor ticket and Liberal candidates were read alphabetically because the Liberal Party does not have a ticket, preferring voters to pick their preferences.
Ballot papers will not allow party voting; voters have to mark their own preferences and the order of candidates within party columns will be randomised, so it appears in a different order on different ballot papers.
In the poll, sitting MLAs were preferred in all cases. Leaders Rosemary Follett (64) and Kate Carnell (71) topped their party faithfuls’ first preference in Molonglo.
In Brindabella, Labor voters defied the ticket. 54 per cent of Labor voters gave Planning Minister Bill Wood their first preference; 11 to MLA Annette Ellis and only 5 to Andrew Whitecross. The Labor ticket order was: Whitecross, Ellis, Wood, Cawthorn and Whan. The last two did not get a first preference. On these figures, unless there is a dramatic turnaround, Labor’s No 1 candidate will not be elected.
Further, one experience in Tasmania suggests that a how-to-vote card that does not match the ballot paper (which will happen in the next ACT election) causes confusion and a higher informal vote. Tasmanian Labor does not use them any more.
The poll showed there was a clear “”punishment” or “”turn-off” factor with some candidates. For Labor it was topped by Wayne Berry in Ginninderra where 18 per cent of Labor voters said they would put him last of the Labor candidates; 17 per cent would put Ellnor Grassby last. In Molonglo, 10 per cent would put Urban Services Minister David Lamont last with 8 for Connolly and 5 for Follett.
On the Liberal side, Trevor Kaine and Gary Humphries still carry some of the stigma of the Alliance Government and school and hospital closures. Mr Kaine got a 22 per cent last; Mr Humphries 12 and Tony De Domenico 12. There was no lasts for Opposition Leader Kate Carnell.
The poll indicates danger for two sitting MLAs are in danger: Liberal Greg Cornwell in Molonglo and Labor’s Ellnor Grassby in Ginninderra.
The “”turn-off factor” against Mr Berry is not enough to prevent him topping Labor’s poll in Ginniderra. Similarly Mr Kaine and Mr Humphries are secure in second position in their seats.