Support for the Follett Government has fallen away in favour of the Liberal Party since the 1992 election, according The Canberra Times-Datacol poll.It indicates that Labor will not get majority government unless there is a substantial flow of votes its way between now and the February 18 election.
However, Labor is still ahead four points and Rosemary Follett is preferred as Chief Minister over Kate Carnell by 3 points.
There remains a high percentage of undecided voters and a high percentage for unspecified independents and minor parties. But it is not good news for Independent Helen Szuty or Abolish Self-Government MLA Dennis Stevenson.
The low first preference for the two major parties has been a feature of all elections and polling since self-government.
In the latest poll, Labor polled 36 per cent, down from 40 per cent in the 1992 election. The Liberals polled 32 per cent up from 29 per cent in 1992.
Independent Michael Moore was on 3.4 and Dennis Stevenson 0.6. No other named independent, including Helen Szuty, reached half of one per cent.
Respondents were also asked how did they vote in 1992. The answer confirmed the drift from Labor. Of those who said they had voted Labor last time, 15 per cent said they would now vote Liberal; 2 per cent to Mr Moore; 2 per cent to other independents and 16 per cent were undecided. Sixty-four per cent stayed Labor.
On the Liberal side, 80 per cent stayed Liberal, 5 per cent drifted to Labor, 1 to Moore and 14 per cent to undecided and others.
On the preference for Chief Minister, 39 prefer Ms Follett and 36 per cent Ms Carnell, with 26 per cent undecided. Ms Carnell is favoured by three points in the 18-34 age group and 11 points among private-sector earners. Ms Follett is ahead in all other age groups, the public sector and males and females. The male-female break-up shows no statistically significant difference from all voters.
It is the first time the preferred-Chief-Minister question has been asked since polling began at the time of self-government. Hitherto, leaders’ performance has been measured along with other MLAs.
What does it augur for the election?
Both major parties will be after the undecided vote. In Federal elections the undecided voters tend to flock to the majors in the last few days. The ACT does not follow that trend. A poll three months before the 1992 election, for example, had undecided at 19 and others at 11 _ 30 points in total. In the election itself, 31 of those 40 points stayed away from the majors and went with minors and independents.
Polling and elections since self-government show the ACT electorate to be far less inclined to vote for the majors than elsewhere in Australia _ that they are less satisfied with the quality of the major parties’ candidates than elsewhere.
At 36 and 32 respectively, the vote for the major parties is at a fairly critical level in the Hare-Clark system. A vote of 37.5 per cent secures three of the seven seats in Molonglo and a vote of 33.2 per cent secures two of the five seats in the other two electorates.
The major parties need to get over those levels so they have a balance of votes to be in the race after preferences for the critical extra seat in each electorate.
Another element of Hare-Clark makes prediction difficult. Voters are permitted to bounce across the parties as they work down the ballot paper. They can vote for a Labor candidate, a Liberal, another Labor, an independent, and a Liberal. There was some evidence in the poll that people were prepared to do that.
Tomorrow The Canberra Times will publish the seat-by-seat break-up, in which there is at least one surprising result.