What a delight to see politicians thinking more than three years ahead.
When the federal executive dumped on the ACT branch of the ALP yesterday it had little to do with the pre-selection of sitting members of the ACT Legislative Assembly. And little, indeed, to do with sitting Federal Members. The real issue was pre-selection for the third ACT federal seat which, according to present population trends, must be created before the next election.
Now the third seat will almost inevitably an ALP one. Mr Gerry Mander himself would have difficulty weaving a boundary line through Red Hill, Forest and Weetangera to form a Tory seat. John Haslem won Canberra for the Liberals in 1975 in the anti-Gough landslide and then retained it having proved himself the local Member par excellence in 1977. But it was a two-election wonder. The ACT is a Labor stronghold.
So the third seat is a gift for any white rabbit Labor wants to put up. The only question is whether this life-long sinecure should be given to a leftie union hack, or a right-wing numbers cruncher. Hence the rivalry about how the pre-selection system.
The new collegiate system would have given a marginal advantage to the left. The rank-and-file vote would be met with an equal vote from an electoral college. The electoral college of 40 is elected by the ACT conference and gives the left an advantage. In fact, it is comprised on 25 left, 11 right and four non-aligned.
It would not be enough, of itself, to unseat a sitting Member. Ros Kelly (right) has enough personal support as does Senator Bob McMullan (non-aligned). John Langmore is left anyway. Locally, all sitting members will get pre-selected. Unlike their federal colleagues, however, who only have to get pre-selected to get elected, they have two hurdles to jump.
Once pre-selected, they face a Hare-Clark election with Robson rotation. This is not a guarantee of election. Labor will pre-select five people each for Ginninderra (Belconnen) and Brindabella (Tuggeranong) and seven for Molonglo (the centre).
The party will assign them an order. However, they will not appear on the ballot paper in that order. For example, in Ginninderra some ballot papers in the Labor column will have Berry, McRae, Smith, Jones and Brown. Other papers will have Smith, McRae, Jones, Berry, Brown, and others will mix them again differently. And there will be no above-the-line party vote (presuming the Government enacts the referendum outcome).
The fuss over pre-selection, therefore, is of less moment in the ACT than elsewhere, especially for sitting members.
The trouble for a sitting member is not getting the party nod to be on the multi-member ballot paper, but getting elected once there. People angered by a sitting member (especially a Minister) can vote against them and still vote Labor. With multi-member electorates, sitting members are almost inevitably going to set a spot (including Bill Wood) and with Robson rotation it does not matter where the spot is; the people not the party will decide if they are elected.
However, there are only eight sitting members for 17 spots. Pre-selection will determine the other nine spots. Unlike most internal Labor brawls, the issue being fought about yesterday was not the position of sitting members, but candidates for new seats.