Crispin Hull

China has now taken back Macau, two years after it took back Hong Kong. It is now looking to Taiwan. The Government in Beijing regards Taiwan as an integral part of China, just as it regarded Hong Kong and Macau as an integral part of China. Hong Kong island was a British colony for 150 years and the New Territories were part of the colony for 99 years before being resumed by China. Macau was a Portuguese territory for 450 years. Taiwan, on the other hand, has had a separate administration from Beijing for just 50 years.

Should the alarm bells be ringing about China’s designs on Taiwan? The background suggests not, even though there has been an increase in military activity on both sides of the straight.

China has always been willing to take the long view. For more than two decades after the 1949 communist revolution it preferred diplomatic isolation rather than accept Taiwan as a sovereign independent entity which was the going price for diplomatic recognition by the United States and at least two dozen nations. The Chinese leadership thought history was on its side. And it was. Ultimately the US and most other countries recognised China in the 1970s and the Beijing Government took the Chinese seat at the United Nations.

So, too, with Hong Kong and Macau. And most likely with Taiwan.

With Hong Kong and Macau, China could have forced the issue much sooner. In 1966, to example, it could have taken advantage of riots in both colonies to march in. At any time thereafter it could have forced a British and Portuguese withdrawal by simply turning off the water supply. Industry would have collapsed. People might have died of thirst and the colonial powers would have had to go. But no. China bided its time.
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The Australian Democrats are preparing to dump their policy of zero net immigration. The draft new policy is being sent to member for consideration. It seeks a more flexible approach while maintaining environmental concerns. The development follows a recent call by the Business Council of Australia for substantially increased immigration to remedy a skills shortage, to boost the economy and to counteract the ageing of the population. Both developments are part of a long debate about population, immigration, the environment and the economy. And there needs to be much more debate and education about these matters.

Much of the debate fails to take account of the very long time it takes for policies to influence population levels and population make-up. It also fails to take account of the profound influence policy decisions today can have on population in the distant future. Further, most of the calls for change are directed at the Government, but in truth there is not a huge amount the Government can do in the short term and there are often other answers to problems posed than population objectives.

The existing Democrats policy of zero-net-immigration and the Business Council’s call for greatly increased immigration are instructive examples of poor thinking on population policy. Both would likely be bad for the country.
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The ACT Attorney-General, Gary Humphries, was quite right to identify difficulties with the system of criminal-injuries compensation in the ACT and set out to do something about it. However, the result has been appalling.

The law passed last week has two fundamental weaknesses. It creates different classes of people with unequal rights and it removes existing rights retrospectively. The ACT Legislative Assembly should be more diligent about upholding principles of equality before the law and avoiding retrospectivity.

The new law exempts police, emergency services and victims of sexual assault from new provisions that prohibit damages for pain and suffering in all but very serious cases. The exemption for sexual assault carries some logic in the face of the other prohibition because it is often the case that these victims would not receive the high level physical injury required to qualify for a pain-and-suffering payment under the new system yet they usually suffer significant psychological damage.
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The fall announced this week in the long-term unemployment rate in November to the lowest number in more than eight years is welcome news indeed. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that188,600 people were listed as being out of work for 12 months or more, seasonally adjusted, the lowest number since June 1991. The news is made better because it follows figures announced last week that put total unemployment falling to the lowest level in over nine years.

The Federal Government is entitled to take a fair amount of credit for this, though some of it must be put down to natural business cycles.

Since the Coalition came to power it has done several things which now appear to be bearing fruit. Most important has been its fiscal discipline. It has reined in federal government debt and turned the Budget deficit into a surplus. Unfortunately, there are now signs that the Government is resting on its laurels or worse falling into the common political trap of setting up surpluses early in the electoral cycle so it can bribe its way to electoral victory later with greater spending — irrespective of economic conditions.
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Democrats Leader Senator Meg Lees and Federal Treasurer Peter Costello say that the new arrangements for charities under the GST will be world’s best practice. That does not say much for the rest of the world.

The exemptions and special treatment extracted from the Government since it first proposed its GST legislation will be a curse on the new tax system. Food, medical and educational services, residential rents and now many charitable transactions will be exempt. It would have been better to include the lot and for compensation to be paid through the welfare and grants process. It would have been better for everyone to realise that there is a 10 per cent tax on the purchase of all goods and services. Once you go down the path of exemptions you add complexity and provide the potential for loopholes and artifice.
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The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development this week praised the economic management of the Australian Government.

The OECD said that good economic management — marked by reducing government debt, low inflation and low interest rates — had enabled Australia to weather the Asian economic crisis. Continued good management would result in falling unemployment rates, down to 6.5 per cent in 2001.

That is the good news.

The not so good news is that the inflationary effect of the GST will require a watchful eye by the Reserve Bank. That in turn might lead to a need to raise interest rates. Higher interest rates can be a blunt weapon. They can stifle economic growth quite suddenly. It means that the introduction of the GST will present a risk and require careful management. However, the OECD praised the introduction of the GST and other tax reform.
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Getting there. Sit in driver’s seat point car westwards and drive 4000kms or so.

The Nullarbor from Ceduna (SA) to Norseman (WA) is 1200km. There are no towns, just roadhouses comprising with service station and motel.
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Merry Christmas everyone. This time next year maybe you will be buying a new television set.

The television networks (particularly the Packer family), however, got their Christmas present this year with the Government’s announcement of the ground rules for the introduction of digital television. It has made the Murdoch family hopping mad.

The decision follows a long line of poor decision making by Federal Governments of both sides since television was first introduced in 1956.

The decision comes about because new digital technology enables many more signals to be broadcast over the existing spectrum.
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The viewing public might get a few crumbs when Prime Minister John Howard announces the Governments decision on digital broadcasting.

Howard said this week that he expected to do so before Christmas.

You might be forgiven for thinking that the Government had already made its decision on digital television. Last July, Labor and the Coalition did a deal which enabled legislation to introduce digital television on January 1, 2001, to pass the Senate.

And before that, in March last year, Communications Minister Richard Alston made a policy statement on digital television.
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Journalists watch out.

The Defamation Bill tabled in the ACT Legislative Assembly this week is a radical change. For the first time journalists’ conduct will be the core issue in defamation trials.

Present law, with few exceptions, requires publishers to prove the truth of what they publish. Well, what is wrong with that? Plenty.

Proving truth is a difficult, expensive and time-consuming exercise, especially with our complex evidence rules and court procedures. Look how long it took the coroner to get to the truth of the hospital implosion or the Thredbo disaster.

The truth requirement has some very poor side-effects.
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