China has now taken back Macau, two years after it took back Hong Kong. It is now looking to Taiwan. The Government in Beijing regards Taiwan as an integral part of China, just as it regarded Hong Kong and Macau as an integral part of China. Hong Kong island was a British colony for 150 years and the New Territories were part of the colony for 99 years before being resumed by China. Macau was a Portuguese territory for 450 years. Taiwan, on the other hand, has had a separate administration from Beijing for just 50 years.
Should the alarm bells be ringing about China’s designs on Taiwan? The background suggests not, even though there has been an increase in military activity on both sides of the straight.
China has always been willing to take the long view. For more than two decades after the 1949 communist revolution it preferred diplomatic isolation rather than accept Taiwan as a sovereign independent entity which was the going price for diplomatic recognition by the United States and at least two dozen nations. The Chinese leadership thought history was on its side. And it was. Ultimately the US and most other countries recognised China in the 1970s and the Beijing Government took the Chinese seat at the United Nations.
So, too, with Hong Kong and Macau. And most likely with Taiwan.
With Hong Kong and Macau, China could have forced the issue much sooner. In 1966, to example, it could have taken advantage of riots in both colonies to march in. At any time thereafter it could have forced a British and Portuguese withdrawal by simply turning off the water supply. Industry would have collapsed. People might have died of thirst and the colonial powers would have had to go. But no. China bided its time.
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