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Why major parties will never recover

The NSW election followed the voting trend away from major parties, but it also helped answer the reason for the trend in a way not shown in previous federal and state elections.

For too long we have been looking at what the major parties are doing (well or badly) for the answer. But the answer lies elsewhere.

Continue reading “Why major parties will never recover”

The population spreadsheet

The population spreadsheet:

YearPopulation
201824,000,000
201924,436,800
202024,881,550
202125,334,394
202225,795,480
202326,264,958
202426,742,980
202527,229,702
202627,725,283
202728,229,883
202828,743,667
202929,266,801
203029,799,457
203130,341,807
203230,894,028
203331,456,300
203432,028,804
203532,611,728
203633,205,262
203733,809,598
203834,424,932
203935,051,466
204035,689,403
204136,338,950
204237,000,319
204337,673,725
204438,359,386
204539,057,527
204639,768,374
204740,492,159
204841,229,116
204941,979,486
205042,743,513
205143,521,444
205244,313,535
205345,120,041
205445,941,226
205546,777,356
205647,628,704
205748,495,546
205849,378,165
205950,276,848
206051,191,887
206152,123,579
206253,072,228
206354,038,143
206455,021,637
206556,023,031
206657,042,650
206758,080,826
206859,137,897
206960,214,207
207061,310,105
207162,425,949
207263,562,102
207364,718,932
207465,896,816
207567,096,138
207668,317,288
207769,560,663
207870,826,667
207972,115,712
208073,428,218
208174,764,612
208276,125,328
208377,510,809
208478,921,505
208580,357,877
208681,820,390
208783,309,521
208884,825,754
208986,369,583
209087,941,510
209189,542,045
209291,171,710
209392,831,035
209494,520,560
209596,240,834
209697,992,418
209799,775,880
2098101,591,801
2099103,440,771
2100105,323,393
2101107,240,279
2102109,192,052
2103111,179,348
2104113,202,812
2105115,263,103
2106117,360,891
2107119,496,860
2108121,671,702
2109123,886,127
2110126,140,855
2111128,436,619
2112130,774,165
2113133,154,255
2114135,577,662
2115138,045,176
2116140,557,598
2117143,115,746
2118145,720,453
2119148,372,565
2120151,072,946
2121153,822,473
2122156,622,042
2123159,472,563
2124162,374,964
2125165,330,188
2126168,339,198
2127171,402,971
2128174,522,505
2129177,698,815
2130180,932,933
2131184,225,913
2132187,578,824
2133190,992,759
2134194,468,827
2135198,008,160
2136201,611,908
2137205,281,245
2138209,017,364
2139212,821,480
2140216,694,831
2141220,638,677
2142224,654,301
2143228,743,009
2144232,906,132
2145237,145,023
2146241,461,063
2147245,855,654
2148250,330,227
2149254,886,237
2150259,525,166
2151264,248,524
2152269,057,848
2153273,954,700
2154278,940,676
2155284,017,396
2156289,186,513
2157294,449,707
2158299,808,692
2159305,265,210
2160310,821,037
2161316,477,980
2162322,237,879
2163328,102,609
2164334,074,076
2165340,154,224
2166346,345,031
2167352,648,511
2168359,066,714
2169365,601,728
2170372,255,679
2171379,030,733
2172385,929,092
2173392,953,002
2174400,104,746
2175407,386,653
2176414,801,090
2177422,350,469
2178430,037,248
2179437,863,926
2180445,833,049
2181453,947,211
2182462,209,050
2183470,621,255
2184479,186,562
2185487,907,757
2186496,787,678
2187505,829,214
2188515,035,306
2189524,408,948
2190533,953,191
2191543,671,139
2192553,565,954
2193563,640,854
2194573,899,118
2195584,344,082
2196594,979,144
2197605,807,764
2198616,833,466
2199628,059,835
2200639,490,524
2201651,129,251
2202662,979,804
2203675,046,036
2204687,331,874
2205699,841,314
2206712,578,426
2207725,547,353
2208738,752,315
2209752,197,607
2210765,887,604
2211779,826,758
2212794,019,605
2213808,470,762
2214823,184,930
2215838,166,896
2216853,421,533
2217868,953,805
2218884,768,764
2219900,871,556
2220917,267,418
2221933,961,685
2222950,959,788
2223968,267,256
2224985,889,720
22251,003,832,913
22261,022,102,672
22271,040,704,941
22281,059,645,770
22291,078,931,323
22301,098,567,874
22311,118,561,809
22321,138,919,634
22331,159,647,971
22341,180,753,564
22351,202,243,279
22361,224,124,107
22371,246,403,165
22381,269,087,703

Pollies, media misunderstand population mood

By CRISPIN HULL

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he understood voter concern over congestion. But very little has changed. Rather, Morrison and the major parties, including the Greens, do not understand population pressure as polling this week revealed.

A Newspoll revealed that 80 per cent of NSW voters want the population to either fall or remain as it is. Only 16 per cent want it to increase.

Not only do politicians refuse to get the message that people do not want the population to grow. The Murdoch press also refuses to get the message. The Australian newspaper, which commissions Newspoll, ran a headline opposite to what the poll showed. It read “Most happy to keep population growth rates at current level”. No they are not. They do not want any population growth at all, let alone at the astonishingly high rate it is now.

Continue reading “Pollies, media misunderstand population mood”

Major parties’ cyber hypocrisy

The major parties, particularly the Liberal Party, were not even aware of the stench of their own hyprocrisy. They went into a complete tizz when a foreign state, presumably China, cyber-hacked their internet servers and information.

Yet, for the past decade or more, the Coalition has been banging the drum demanding more government access to everyone’s metadata and access to anyone’s internet account on the grounds of national security, saying “if you have got nothing to hide you have nothing to fear.”

Continue reading “Major parties’ cyber hypocrisy”

LNP scare to put RAN in impossible position

Captains of Australian Naval vessels should take extreme care in the next three months – Not the ordinary maritime care they always take but the care about not being made political pawns.

Over the past six years, the people-smuggling trade has dried up for two key reasons. 

First, the Navy has ensured that virtually no vessel has managed to get to shore and that virtually all those vessels found at sea are returned to Indonesia.

Second, the Government has successfully run an information campaign in Indonesian refugee camps and elsewhere telling potential passengers that they would be wasting their money because Australia now had an effective turn-back policy. This has been a more effective message than telling them about the possibility of risking their lives.

Importantly, the trade has not dried up because Australian Governments have kept people in soul-destroying indefinite detention on Manus and Nauru as some sort of example, in an exercise only marginally less morally bankrupt than Nazis having occupied villagers shot as an example to suppress resistance.

The turn-back policy is now bipartisan. Labor has learned the lessons of 2007-13 when an alarming number of people arrived by boat. Labor tightened its policy before it lost office in 2013. It knows the electoral cost of not controlling borders.

Nonetheless, the Coalition is certain to run a border-security scare campaign in May, especially after Labor supported the passage this week of legislation to give doctors a greater say in who gets to come to Australia from Manus and Nauru for medical attention.

Even though the legislation is limited to only those in the camps now, the Government will portray Labor as having a scary open-border policy. And the truth will be irrelevant. 

Both major parties have got form on scare campaigns. Recall Labor’s 2016 Mediscare campaign.

But the Coalition has got special form on border and boat-people scares and this puts the Navy in a difficult position.

Recall that HMAS Adelaide intercepted SIEV 4 (Suspected Irregular Entry Vessel) carrying 223 passengers seeking entry to Australia in October 2001, a month before the election.

The facts later found by two Senate inquiries were that the vessel had not been deliberately sunk. Nor had women threatened to throw their babies overboard or had actually done so to ensure rescue and transfer to Australia.

Rather the vessel had sunk because of the force of the towing and no babies went into the water before the sinking.

The naval crew knew this. The crew reported it to the captain.

Later it was revealed that someone on then Defence Minister Peter Reith’s staff had advised the true position, but Reith and Prime Minister John Howard denied this.

Who cares? By then the election had been won. Never let the truth and a good scare campaign get in the way of electoral victory.

A huge number of Australian voters cannot be relied upon to ignore an unmeritorious scare campaign. Fear is a powerful emotion.

But things may well go beyond a mere scare campaign.

1960s British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan was once apocryphallyasked what a Prime Minister most feared in politics. He replied, “Events, dear boy, events.”

Those, however, were the days when Government politicians responded to events and did not make them up with creative ribbon-cutting opening events for new infrastructure in marginal electorates, or silly hard-hat and orange-vest visits to mines and manufacturing sites. And in those days it was harder to control events, like economic downturns, wars or revolutions.

These days Governments can make events, like invasions of Iraq.

These days, desperate governments might well seek to both create and control events.

Now let us turn to Section 68 of the Constitution which reads: “The command in chief of the naval and military forces of the Commonwealth is vested in the Governor-General as the Queen’s representative.”

In effect, it means that the Government of the day controls the armed forces with little or no parliamentary oversight. Australia went to war in Iraq twice under Section 68.

Under Section 68, the Government of the day instituted the turn-back policy. Equally, it could order a tactical reversal of that policy so that just one or two boats could get through in the next month or two so that Labor could be blamed.

Bear in mind, too, that there is a relationship between Border Force and people smugglers.

Recall that in 2016 Border Force officers were accused of paying $32,000 to people smugglers to return their boats and people cargo to Indonesia. That is a lot of money for a people smuggler who would be paid twice – once for loading the refugees and again for taking them back to where they came from.

So if Border Force officers could bribe people smugglers to return refugees, it is not beyond their operational capacity to bribe them or just tell them that they can organise one or two trips to Australia with impunity.

The Navy could be ordered not to touch them. Moreover, Navy personnel could be ordered never to say anything about it.

Maybe this is a tad conspiratorial, but recall the event-creation of the children overboard scandal. The Navy carried out orders and said nothing, as would be proper for them.

Meanwhile, the Australian public got duped by a scare campaign. And after the election was won, who cared? Don’t let it happen again. 

We should care. Naval officers should make sure the record is kept for posterity even if not immediately available for political feasting.

One hopes, however, that the Australian public has learned and now is more astute and thinks that while border security is important, it is achievable without inhumanity. And that they read this week’s events not as “weak on security” but “strong on principle”. 

In a way, this election will be as much as test for voters as for political parties.

Meanwhile, the really scary “open-border” issue which in fact threatens Australia’s security continues almost unabated. After a couple of months of politicians saying that they understand Australians’ concern about huge immigration and population growth, the Ponzi schemers were back on the airwaves this week extolling the virtues of a big Australia while fish die in the Murray-Darling, congestion continues and big profits continue for big retailers, property developers and miners at the expense of everyone else.

Both sides do it. Former PM Rudd was praising Big Australia and Treasurer John Frydenberg promoted the 190,000 annual immigration target – one Hobart every year.

Can we please replace scares with sanity and truth? 

CRISPIN HULL

This article first appeared in The Canberra Times, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on 16 February 2019.

Labor’s Moth-effect trouble

I CALL it the moth effect. Australian Federal parliamentarians more than any anywhere should be aware of it and take it into account, but they don’t.

Thirty years ago in the first spring after the new Parliament House opened in Canberra Bogong moths in their tens of thousands were attracted by the new powerful light of Parliament House as they flew from the coast to the mountains. Previously they had relied on the moon to guide them.

Continue reading “Labor’s Moth-effect trouble”

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