Kate Carnell Liberals are far enough ahead of Labor for her to retain the Chief Ministership, according to the latest Canberra-Datacol poll.
The Liberals are ahead in all electorates and have picked up more of the undecided than Labor. They are nearly 10 points ahead in Molonglo, 3.5 in Brindabella and 1.2 in Ginninderra.
However, the lead is nowhere near enough for a Liberal majority government. It is possible Mrs Carnell could form government relying only on two Osborne group independents.
Most likely the Liberals will win seven seats and Labor six with four going to minor parties and independents. The Liberals have a good chance of retaining three seats in Molonglo, but much will depend on preferences of the minor parties. Labor will get two in Molonglo and the Greens one with one seat in doubt, going to the Democrats or perhaps Michael Moore. The Greens’ Kerrie Tucker MLA has polled well in Molonglo (9.7 per cent), almost doubling the support of her Green colleagues in the other seats.
The five seats in Brindabella are almost certain to go Liberal 2, Labor 2, Paul Osborne 1.
Ginninderra will split Liberal 2, Labor 2 and the last going to Dave Rugendyke of the Osborne Group or and Green or Democrat, depending on how the preferences flow from the over-quota of the major parties and from excluded minor parties.
This last seat in Ginninderra will determine whether Mrs Carnell needs to rely on someone outside the Osborne group to gain and keep government, to get legislation through, and to defeat legislation coming from the Opposition or the cross-bench.
The Democrats have stated they will support the leader of the party with the most seats for chief minister, or if they are even, the party with the most votes. On this poll, that will mean Mrs Carnell.
At this stage, the only hope for Mr Berry is a significant late swing and to attract the undecided which are running at about 28 per cent. He will also need the Greens or Democrats to beat Mr Rugendyke (7.2) in Ginninderra and for both of them to support his chief ministership. They are significant hurdles.
The Greens (5.2) and Democrats (4.5) will need a very tight exchange of preferences in Ginninderra for the Greens to retain the seat vacated by Lucy Horodny. There may not be much over-quota preference spill from Labor on 24.0. At present Mr Rugendyke looks in the slightly better position.
The last seats in Molonglo (after an assured Liberal 2, Labor 2 and Green 1) are very close. They will be split between the third Liberal seat, a Democrat, Michael Moore, and second Green, the Osborne group in that order of likelihood. Once again it depends on preference spills, the undecided and any late swing.
On this poll the most likely result is: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Osborne 2, Green 1, Democrat 1. However, in previous elections the Democrat vote has fallen away and the vote for independents increases as the election approaches and this poll is picking that trend.
The poll also asked what were the major issues. Economic management came first, followed by health, creating jobs, education, strong leader, law and order and a fair bit below that was planning and development. The reduced concern for the last is perhaps a reason why Michael Moore is polling lower than in previous elections and why Jacqui Rees is polling so low.