Liberal MLA and Speaker Greg Cornwell is not assured of capturing the third Liberal seat in Molonglo.
Instead it may go to the Liberals’ Nick Tolley.
Mr Tolley, 22, describes himself as a “”student working in a pub and service station”.
The past couple of days have put the result of the election in more doubt than was previously thought, according to scrutineers from all sides.
Further, there are at least 4000 further postal and declaration votes to be counted which could chnge the picture in other seats. These will be counted in the next two days.
Declaration votes are where people do not show on the roll and prove they were unjustifiably removed from it.
The problem for Mr Cornwell comes with the direction of preferences from Kate Carnell. Scrutineers say about 55 per cent of them are going to Gary Humphries, assuring him of a seat, but after that they are not going with enough consistency to Mr Cornwell to assure him of a seat. The other 45 per cent of her preferences are going to other Liberals or elsewhere.
That said, Mr Cornwell is favoured to get the seat, but it is by no means certain.
In Brindabella, the Liberals’ Trevor Kaine and Louise Littlewood are still vying for the second Liberal seat. The preferences of the two other Liberals, Margaret Head and Geoff Didier, are favouring Mr Kaine, but it will come down to the last 10 or 20 votes.
More than half of Mr Didier’s preferences are leaking out of the Liberal column, indicating that many people voted for him as a footballer rather than the party candidate.
Electoral staff are now checking first preferences and sorting ballot papers into piles ready for the preference count.
The other doubtfuls are: In Molonglo, between Labor’s Steve Garth and Simon Corbell for the second Labor seat. Ted Quinlan is almost certain to have the other Labor seat. In Ginninderra: between the Greens’ Shane Rattenbury and the Osborne Group’s Dave Rugendyke for the last seat.
That makes the Legislative Assembly: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Moore 1, Osborne 1, Green 1 and the last either Osborne Group or Green.