Why Abbott’s conservative climate pact collapsed

harper abbottTHE TWO dumb Prime Ministers, Canada’s Stephen Harper and Australia’s Tony Abbott are on their own. The so-called conservative alliance against action on climate change died from its own contradictions in under a fortnight.

Harper: “It’s not that we don’t seek to deal with climate change. But we seek to deal with it in a way that will protect and enhance our ability to create jobs and growth, not destroy jobs and growth in our countries. And frankly, every single country in the world, this is their position.

“No matter what they say, no country is going to take actions that are going to deliberately destroy jobs and growth in their country. We are just a little more frank about that, but that is the approach that every country is seeking.”

Well, yes they will, Mr Harper, because it is better to sacrifice a few jobs and a bit of economic growth now than to risk much greater economic loss in the future.

As Australian economist Ross Garnaut has pointed out, the earlier you start the less the impact on the economy. The later you start the more it will cost.

Abbott: “We should do what we reasonably can to limit emissions and avoid climate change – man-made climate change – but we shouldn’t clobber the economy. That’s why I’ve always been against a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme because it harms our economy without necessarily helping the environment. . . . each country should take the action that it thinks is best to reduce emissions”.

Well, Mr Abbott, significant climate change will “clobber the economy” far more severely than any carbon tax, emissions trading scheme or effective direct action.

The evidence is in that the risk of damaging climate change is so apparent that only a fool would ignore it.

Harper does not grasp the fact that other countries are willing to sacrifice jobs in big carbon sectors of the economy and hope that they will be replaced in clean sectors. But even if they are not so replaced the sacrifice will be worth it to avoid later costs.

Neither Prime Minister grasps the idiocy and futility of the selfish positions of Australia and Canada. The Prime Ministers think it is fine to assert that no individual nation will act on climate change in a way that might hurt jobs and economic growth and that, anyway, one nation’s contribution would not matter so why not bludge on other nation’s that are silly enough to act.

The trouble with that approach is twofold.

First, other nations are acting, even China and India. Loy Yang power station, for example, would not be permitted in China under its new environmental regime. Once other countries act, they are not going to permit a few nations to get away with doing nothing. It is quite easy to imagine the European Union, for example, imposing a carbon tariff on goods coming from carbon-lazy countries like Australia and Canada.

Secondly, smart countries acting on climate change are getting ahead in clean energy – where we are all going to have to go anyway. Jobs and the economy in Australia and Canada are going to get a far greater clobbering from falling behind in newer, cleaner forms of energy than from any carbon reduction program.

The economic argument for action is getting stronger. Even if there is nothing in climate change (however, unlikely that may be), people and business have nonetheless reacted to the fear (whether founded or unfounded) of it. It has meant a huge investment in renewables and this alone will make coal less competitive

Yes, people will buy coal while it is cheaper than solar or wind. But it is coming less so. Solar and wind are cheaper than coal for power generation quite a bit of the time now – all times but calm nights. As battery technology inevitably improves, the Australian and Canadian coal-based economies will be like dinosaurs – big and powerful in their day but mortally weakened by a failure to adapt to changing conditions.

Abbott and Harper are the stand-out dummies. Britain and New Zealand have more sensible conservative governments.

Britain had a veiled warning for Australia. Its climate and energy minister Greg Barker said this week, “We are engaged with Australia and New Zealand, encouraging them to take a responsible proactive part in seeking an ambitious global treaty on climate change.”

It will not take much for “encouraging” to turn into demanding.

A spokeswoman for New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said, “This government takes climate change seriously. That is why we were one of the first countries to introduce a comprehensive emissions trading scheme.”

The international political climate on climate change is changing.

The argument that Australia or Canada is too small to make a difference on climate change so why go to any expense or trouble to do anything; let others do the work is going to be turned on its head.

The argument will run, why should Australia and Canada get away with doing next to nothing when other nations have made the effort in the interests of all the people of the world.

Far from a conservative alliance against carbon taxes and emissions trading spear-headed by Canada and Australia, it seems we are getting a more general alliance that will turn on Canada and Australia for falling behind.

The essential point is that Abbott’s government is not a conservative government, in the sense that the Key Government and Cameron Government are. The Abbott Government is a radical government that is not interested in conserving and strengthening the ties, traditions and bonds that keep society together, in the long tradition of conservatism from Edmund Burke’s denunciation of the French Revolution to Robert Menzies’ appeal to the Forgotten People.

A true conservative would want to preserve society against the threat of climate change.

This, and the economic good sense of moving with the rest of the world to take action, is perhaps why the Abbott-Harper “conservative alliance” against carbon taxes and emissions trading went up in smoke.
CRISPIN HULL
This article first appeared in The Canberra Times on 14 June 2014.

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