WILL the ACT be next? Last Saturday Labor lost in the Northern Territory with a six per cent swing against it. 
It follows losses in Queensland, NSW, Victoria and Western Australia.
In South Australia in 2010 Labor suffered an 8.4 per cent swing against it, but it just clung to power with only 48.4 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. In Tasmania in 2010, Labor got 37 per cent of the vote, suffered a 12.4 per cent swing against it, but kept power with the help of the Greens.
A swing of the magnitude in any of those elections repeated in the ACT would see the fate of Labor depending on the Greens getting a very large vote.
In the less than five years since Labor won nationally in 2007, Labor has lost about a third of its Lower House seats across the Australian parliaments — down from 445 to 301 (or perhaps 302 depending on the final Northern Territory result).
What has happened to the Labor brand? Who can resuscitate it? (More of that anon.)
Most Canberrans at this stage would bet on Labor being returned with a similar result as last time in 2008, with maybe the Greens losing a seat to the Liberals. They would think it is a Labor town, so Labor should win.
But Canberra is not a “Labor” town. It, like most other towns, is a great supporter of its main industry and main attractions. Its main industry is, of course, Federal public administration. Federal Labor is seen as being better for that industry than the Federal Coalition. That does not automatically translate to a Labor win at state level.
Half a dozen factors point to a Liberal win.
First, it is an old government. The longer a party is in power the more dissatisfaction it attracts while its achievements become just the expected thing of any government.
Secondly, the Labor brand is suffering across the nation at state and territory level. True, Labor copped a hiding four years ago in the ACT with a 9 per cent swing, so a lot of the backlash might have been taken up. However, the Greens benefitted as much from that swing at the Liberals.
Thirdly, Jon Stanhope is gone. You might think that a freshening change of leadership would help a long-term government, but Anna Bligh, John Brumby, and the NSW revolving leadership door indicate the contrary.
Labor scored about 4 per cent higher in 2008 in Stanhope’s electorate of Ginninderra than elsewhere. He had a degree of popularity now lost to Labor. Yes, he was often defensive and quick to rile, but he exuded decency and incorruptibility.
Fourthly, the cooking of the hospital-emergency books will not help Chief Minister Katy Gallagher. She certainly minimised the damage by the quick and open response, but among people who only take a marginal interest in politics there is a smell, however undeserved.
Fifthly, the change to the stamp duty and rates regime will leave more voters feeling worse off or cynical than those who see it as a worthwhile long-term reform. After all, a huge number of voters are getting their annual rates notices now. Very few are benefitting from stamp duty reductions, and even then, homebuyers are still aghast at the eye-watering amount of stamp duty they still have to pay.
Sixthly, the nuances of the Hare-Clark system are not likely to help Labor and the Greens in the same way as last election.
Last election, the Australian Motorists Party took about six per cent of the primary vote and advised its followers not to direct any preferences. As it happened, the petrol heads displayed a singular lack of independent thought and did what they were told.
The net result was that the conservative side of politics in the ACT was denied about 6 per cent of the vote. The petrol heads, rather amusingly, in fact, delivered a seat to the Greens. The quirk is unlikely to be repeated.
True, Labor can suffer a 7 per cent swing or more in Ginninderra and perhaps 5 per cent in Brindabella without any danger of losing a seat, but in Molonglo its third seat would fall with as little as a 3 per cent swing. If that happened, Labor would need a Green to win a seat in each electorate to keep office.
But the Libs are banking on getting a third seat in Brindabella by taking one from the Greens and hoping on getting four in Molonglo or three and a conservative-supporting Independent, to give it Government. That is difficult but not fanciful.
Against this are factors which can help Labor.
First, the multi-member system means Labor can sustain a big swing in the two five-member electorates without losing a seat.
Secondly, the ACT Liberals are a fairly colourless, inactive lot. They have not developed a narrative for the city.
Thirdly, Gallagher seen as likeable and diligent even if put a bit on the defensive by the hospital debacle, none of which was her making.
Fourthly, name recognition gives a boost to her two long-standing Ministers: Simon Corbell and Andrew Barr. Another Minister, Joy Burch, has done the leg work to get recognition.
Fifthly, the ACT Labor Government is seen as having the courage of its convictions where other Labor governments shy away: gay marriage, euthanasia and civil liberties. (But those people vote Labor-Green anyway).
In all, we may see a significant swing against Labor, but for Labor to cling on as in Tasmania and South Australia, but I would not be surprised if the Liberals get government.
Indeed, one thing you can usually count on in an ACT election is some surprising factor not countenanced by the media or the politicians themselves.
Nationally, some see the salvation of the Labor brand in it taking the small-l liberal ground deserted by the capital-L Liberals.
ACT Labor MP Andrew Leigh pointed out this week out that under John Howard and Tony Abbott, the Liberals have abandoned the legacy of Menzies and Fraser and made the Liberal Party a purely conservative party. Indeed, Abbott has added “patriotic” to its core values.
True, liberalism does not have many outlets in Australia these days, but whether more overt liberalism will help Labor is another matter.
It seems the Australian people have abandoned the ideals of liberalism, and selfishness is the order of the day. The attachment to Medicare, for example, is because individual voters see it a good for them, not as good for the less fortunate or society as a whole.
While this mood pertains, ACT Labor is in real trouble.
CRISPIN HULL
This article first appeared in The Canberra Times on 1 September 2012.