When Julie Bishop was elevated to the Education Ministry this week some papers dragged out a 2003 interview in which she described herself as an “economic dry and a social liberal” which she said reflected “mainstream Australia these days”.
The comment seems off the mark given the make-up of the Government which is mostly economically dry and socially conservative. Nor is it true of much of the Labor Party which is economically troglodyte and socially conservative.
But it is not off the mark when you consider that both the Government and the Labor Party are dogs being waved by powerful tails. In Labor’s case it is the unions and the remnant influence of the Catholic Church. In the Government’s case it is the National Party.
Nearly all the economic dullardism on the Government’s side comes from the Nationals and a lot of the social conservatism does as well. Obviously, John Howard’s social conservatism contributes significantly, but even then Howard gets succour for those views in the joint party room and Cabinet from the Nationals. Without it, social liberals would have been able to exert more influence.
So Julie Bishop’s idea of mainstream should not be dismissed just because the Government does not behave that way. Non-mainstream Queensland and northern and western NSW are having a disproportionate influence on policy in a way that does not reflect the mainstream views of urban Australia and the other states and territories generally.
The defection of Victorian Senator Julian McGauran from the National Party to the Liberals makes the point.
It is another small step in the slow but remorseless reduction in the Nationals’ disproportionate exercise of power and influence.
Victoria is the crucial state for the Nationals. Without it they become a rump confined to Queensland and northern and western NSW. Last election in the House or Representatives, the Nationals got 1 per cent or less of the vote in Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia and the two territories. In NSW and Queensland they got between 9 and 10 per cent. In Victoria, they got 3.5 per cent.
These figures are critical because of the Senate. (You cannot tell directly what the Nationals’ support is in the Senate because the Coalition runs a joint ticket, so you have to look at the House of Representatives vote to get an idea of party strength.)
In Queensland and NSW, the Nationals’ support of around 10 per cent is strong enough to always command one Senate seat in a half-Senate election (or even two). But the 3.5 per cent in Victoria is not.
The fact is Julian McGauran only got his Victorian Senate seat because the Coalition ran a joint ticket. Given that the long Senate ballot paper encourages party-ticket voting, it is safe to say that McGauran’s seat is really a Liberal one. There is no way he would have got elected if he had stood separately as a National. Most of the people who voted for the Coalition ticket in Victoria would oppose what the Nationals stand for.
The cry by Nationals’ leader Mark Vaile for McGauran to resign from the Senate to make way for a National is absurd. Vaile argued that McGauran only got to the Senate on National Party effort so if he does not want to stay with the National Party he should make way for someone who does.
Wrong. McGauran only got to the Senate on Liberal Party effort. The Nationals were lucky to have the seat.
If the Liberal Party in Victoria had any sense it would prove the point by booting the Nationals off its Senate list next election and watch the Nationals’ Victorian Senate presence expire at the hands of the mainstream voters in Victoria.
The long-term trend for the economically dullard and socially conservative Nationals is ever down from its high point in 1975 when it won 23 seats in a 127-seat House of Representatives (18 per cent of seats). It now has 12 seats in a 150-member House (8 per cent). It is still disproportionate given its 5.9 per cent of the vote, but it is waning. In the four successive Howard victories, the Nationals won 18, 15, 13 and 12 seats. After McGauran’s defection it can only go down from here.
Of course, the Nationals say they will always be around, but they said the Democratic Labor Party would never go the way of the dinosaur.
In the meantime, we will see how a social liberal goes in Education while the former Minister, Brendan Nelson, goes to Defence where he will probably have an even more difficult task imposing intelligent design than he had in Education.