The graceful retirement and handing over office to a younger person is behaviour rarely seen in politics.
Treasurer Peter Costello should look into the history books (and indeed watch a few David Attenborough documentaries) to realise that he will have to fight to get the Prime Ministership from John Howard.
Australia has 25 Prime Ministers. Four were caretaker Prime Ministers for a few days while the major party elected a new leader. One is still in office. What was the fate of the others?
Essentially, they get beaten by the people, their own party or they die in office. They rarely resign to hand over to a younger person. They rarely quit while they are ahead.
The people threw out: Keating, Fraser, Whitlam, McMahon, Chifley, Scullin, Bruce (who also lost his own seat), Cook and Deakin.
It seems unlikely now that Howard would be beaten by the people, but a year or two is a very long time in politics and the public is fickle.
The party threw out: Hawke, Gorton, Hughes and Reid.
It seems unlikely now that the party would throw out Howard who has won four elections for the Liberal Party, but when backbenchers sense they are more likely to retain their own seats under a new leader, self-preservation is always a stronger instinct than gratefulness.
Three died in office: Holt, Curtin and Lyons. (And Lyons’ party would have got him in 1938 if he hadn’t.)
One in effect lost his majority on the floor of the House: Watson.
Only three of the 20 left on their time of choosing: Menzies, Fisher and Barton. Menzies retired and Fisher and Barton choose to go to other jobs after having enough: Fisher to London as High Commissioner and Barton to the High Court. And Peter Costello should note that Menzies was 72 at the time.
It is the same in the states. People, party, ill-health and death are far more likely to take a Premier out of office than a voluntary resignation at the time of the Premier’s choosing.
Neville Wran in NSW is the exception. Henry Bolte in Victoria, Tom Playford in South Australia and Charles Court (sen) in Western Australia retired at the time of their choosing.
But again, Peter Costello should note, Playford, Court and Menzies fought and won elections at an age older than Howard will be at the time of the 2007 election.
It is standard human behaviour to cling to power and leadership. The sort of person who seeks political office is the sort of person who will fight to keep it. The sort of person with the tenacity to gain office will not relinquish it lightly. “Someone else’s turn” does not enter the lexicon.
It is similar in much of the animal kingdom. Most of the hoofed animals and tribes of primates have a dominant male who takes all and regularly has to fight of challenges by young bucks until he is eventually defeated.
There are some similarities between the fight between Treasurer Paul Keating and Prime Minister Bob Hawke in 1990 and 1991. But there are clear differences.
The first is that Hawke only narrowly won the 1990 election, losing ground on the 1987 result. Howard on the other hand improved the Liberal result in 2004 from the 2001 result, gaining a majority in the Senate.
More importantly, opinion polls put Howard way ahead of his opposition as preferred Prime Minister. Howard lifts his party’s standing. Hawke, on the other hand, was floundering in 1991. He was being seen Prime Minister for the sake of being Prime Minister not what he could do with the office. Contrast this with the list of things Howard wants to do.
These things have a profound affect on backbenchers’ attitudes. When considering leaders, MPs rarely think: who is the best leader? Who is best for the country? Rather, they think, which person gives me the best prospect of keeping my seat and/or my place in the Government?
When Labor MPs came to the conclusion that they had a better chance with Keating (albeit a slim one) than with Hawke, sentiment went out the window. Goodbye Bob.
The Liberal Party is nowhere near that stage. Opinion polls show that the Liberals have a better chance of winning the 2007 election with Howard than Costello. Of course, that might change, but not for some time.
To date, Costello’s more-than-decade-old strategy to get the top job has been “the loyal deputy”. He must have thought that was the best way to ensure he gets it.
The old buck, Howard, has now made a rare mistake. A week ago he inadvertently signalled his true intention: to stay beyond the 2007 election. As a result everything changes.
Costello now must know that he must do a Keating: fight for the top job.
His best chance must be to play on his party colleagues’ fear of losing their seats or their position in the Government. He must try to persuade them that, for them, an orderly transfer is better than and a disorderly one and that Howard must publicly announce that he will retire in this term.
History is against that. Expect a fight. The momentum will be slow but inevitable. It will be low key at first, but the media will now place every major action of the Government in the context of the leadership battle.
Costello must be careful that he does not do all the work driving off the old leader and thereby so wounds himself that different young buck seizes the opportunity and takes the prize.