The people of the ACT have given Chief Minister Jon Stanhope majority government.
Its cautious government over the past three years has resulted in voters not being concerned about handing Labor a majority.
A lot of last night’s victory is a personal victory for Stanhope. It is reflected in his high personal vote of 2.1 quotas.
The electorate has obviously thought that a majority Labor Government is a better proposition than a minority one relying on Green support. The prediction of Greens’ federal leader Bob Brown of three or four Green seats fell to dust.
So why did Stanhope do so well and the Greens and Democrats so badly?
Stanhope has brought a passion and conviction to the job. While his federal colleagues and Labor leaders in the states have concentrated almost solely on the economy, Stanhope went beyond that. He was not frightened to legislate and fund a strong agenda on human rights, indigenous people, gay rights, the environment to the like. With that agenda voters obviously thought the Democrats and Greens less necessary.
It might be a lesson to Labor leaders elsewhere.
Another lesson they might take is the way Stanhope has not engaged in slickness and has not run from blame. After the fires his statement “if you are going to blame anyone, blame me,” earned him a lot of support.
It is likely that the observation that social commentator Hugh Mackay made about the federal result applies to the ACT: many voters made up their mind a year or more ago and little in the campaign blitz made them change it.
The Greens are the big losers in this election – especially coming a week after getting almost double their ACT vote just a week ago in the Federal ACT Senate race.
The trend over the six elections of ACT self-government has been for the major parties to increase their vote and to increase their seats.
As the major parties have gained experience and maturity so has the electorate. This election, voters made discerning choices between candidates of the same party. Some individual MLAs from both sides have done very badly and others have done very well.
One the Liberals’ side Vicki Dunne, Steve Pratt and Jacqui Burke did poorly, though are likely to be elected. One the Labor side, Wayne Berry and Karin MacDonald did poorly, though they are likely to get over the line.
The two leaders did well as did the Liberals’ Bill Stefaniak and Labor’s John Hargreaves.
Whether the party leaders, party rooms or members at large have the courage to act on the people’s choice come time to pick front-benchers or to pre-select next time is another matter. But they should. Pruning keeps the plant healthy.
One of the reasons ACT government has improved so much since the grim days of the early 1990s is that about a third of the House gets thrown out or retires each election.
And the ACT is fairly well-governed. Other states have had corruption, deaths in hospitals covered up, police shooting, banking collapses and the like.
Stanhope’s natural caution has led to some criticism that nothing is being done. Stanhope, on the other hand points to a long list of achievements and promises met.
His new majority will not make a huge difference with legislation or on the floor of the Parliament.
For the past three years Stanhope Labor has had its way on the floor of the Parliament on all but a tiny number of matters. The Greens and the Democrats almost routinely voted with it.
But majority does give rise to an expectation that having had three years of planning and consulting the Government will start implementing and there will be no excuse if it does not.
One matter the Greens and Democrats did vote against Labor was on its proposal to increase the size of the Assembly. The Assembly should be bigger. It would make for better governance. A Labor majority will not give it carte blanche to fiddle with the electoral system. To increase the size it must get a regulation made by the federal system. That will only happen if there is bipartisan agreement.
The Government is in a fortunate position of not having made wild promises it must have to fund. Australia and the ACT have had good economic times recently. They may not continue. The Government must ensure that its projected surpluses over the next few years remain intact.