As time goes on fewer people are determined to rebuild and live where they did before the fires.
The decline coincides with what psychologists say happens after a disaster. Initially there is a great community bond, then reality sets in. Cleavages occur in the community. Also, under insurance means a third of those not rebuilding say they cannot afford to rebuild as they initially had hoped. Another third just want closure. And the remaining third found the rebuilding process too complex.
Research by Market Attitude Research commissioned by the Recovery Task Force shows that in the month after the fire two-thirds of those affected intended to rebuild. By five months after the fire that had shrunk to a half.
The aim of the research was to help the taskforce meet housing needs.
After seven months fewer than 75 development applications have been approved. Of these about 60 have had building applications approved. Of these only two or three have had final certificates of completion issued so people can occupy their new homes.
The survey is fairly conclusive. Researchers interviewed people from 403 of the 500 affected families. If anything it might under-represent those who decide not to rebuild – because they would be harder to contact or refuse to be interviewed because they wanted the fires out of their lives.
Of those affected, a quarter have sold or will sell their land and another quarter are undecided.
The large number of undecided indicates there is still a lot of work to be done in recovery. Of all those affected, 80 per cent say they are satisfied with the information they are getting – mainly from the Recovery Centre, its weekly Community Update newsletter and its newspaper advertisements.
About 40 per cent of those rebuilding are having problems. A quarter of those cite the slowness of the building process and one in five cite rising building costs. The compares with the ease of selling – only 24 per cent saying they had any problem and 80 per cent of those who sold have already bought elsewhere.