ACT Liberal Leader Gary Humphries has lost the support of a majority (if not nearly all) of his colleagues, but there will not be a leadership spill because it suits most of them to organise a more seamless exit around the contest for the ACT Senate seat if Senator Margaret Reid retires.
Mr Humphries would not comment on the numbers yesterday. Nor would he state formally his position on the move to the Senate because he said there was no vacancy at the moment.
The Deputy Leader, Brendan Smyth, said yesterday that all comment about the party room should come from the leader.
“”I am not aware that Gary has lost support of the party room,” he said.
However, Liberal Party sources say that if there were no impending contest for the Senate seat, there would be a spill in which Mr Humphries would lose the leadership.
Liberal MLAs have seen some of Mr Humphries’s actions as attempts to shore up his chances in a ballot for the Senate seat rather than as the actions of a purely local ACT leader. Liberal sources have cited his appointment of a chief of staff, unsuccessful candidate Amalia Matheson, who is seen to be on the right of the party, whereas Mr Humphries would be on the left or centre of the party – at least in the federal context. Ms Matheson would bring support from the Young Liberals, too.
The Senate question provides an easy out for the ACT party. Presuming that Senator Reid loses the presidency of the Senate and resigns from the Senate, Mr Humphries would stand for the vacancy. He would be under pressure to stand aside from the leadership while he contested the pre-selection. Liberal insiders say that Mr Humphries would be likely to do that anyway.
Either Mr Humphries would win the pre-selection and go to the Senate or lose it and then be shut out of a return to the leadership in the ACT because MLAs would argue that the ACT leadership cannot be seen as a “”second-best”. Either way deputy leader Brendan Smyth would be the most likely leader. Mr Smyth is seen as more dynamic, direct and a better performer in the House than Mr Humphries who is seen as more cautious and more concerned to express qualifications to things he says.
If Senator Reid lost the Senate seat, the party would make it fairly plain that it would be in the party’s interest for her to leave the Senate to enable her replacement some time in the role before facing election.
An ACT Senate vacancy would be filled by a ballot of all ACT Liberal Party members – about 500 people. It is likely to be one of the most open pre-selections in Australia – other states have Senate pre-selection by delegates and not open to the whole party membership. A joint sitting of both Houses would confirm the Liberal Party’s choice as replacement.
Sources close to Mr Humphries suggest he is fairly confident of getting the pre-selection, but he would be up against tough (but as yet undeclared) competition. He would most likely be up against former Chief Minister Kate Carnell, his assembly colleague Bill Stefaniak, and some federal party figures including a staffer of Prime Minister John Howard and possibly one candidate who holds a senior federal statutory position.
Not much can happen in the ACT Liberal party room until August because Mr Stefaniak is on leave in Poland and Greg Cornwell is on leave in Alaska. However, the ACT Liberal Party has never formalised its rules on quorums and calling meetings in recess when some members might be away. In any event the Estimates Committees process is under way.
In the past couple of weeks the party has had internal ructions over the position of Helen Cross with assertions and then denials should would move to the cross-bench. To lose Mrs Cross would not favour Mr Humphries’ Senate chances. Further it would help the eight-member Labor Party get a crucial majority-forming ninth vote on the floor of the House on occasions. Mr Humphries was seen as not taking a strong enough controlling action on that, upsetting one group of MLAs. Some of those MLAs were concerned that Mr Humphries did not insist upon pooling of funds at the election. The lack of poling benefited Mrs Cross. Mr Humphries also lost points with Mr Cornwell over the which office Mr Cornwell should get and with Mr Stefaniak over the level of support to the Liberal staffer (a close friend of Mr Stefaniak) who received and read e-mails meant for a Labor Minister.
One Liberal Party source said there was a lot of rolling on logs in the ACT Liberal Party at the moment and some people were bound to fall into the water.