Timor is at last free and independent — more than a quarter of a century after the bloody invasion by Indonesia which followed the sudden departure of the Portuguese colonial masters who has ruled the tiny territory for more than 400 years.
About a quarter of the population of just 800,000 lost their lives in that struggle. Now the struggle will be of a different kind – a peaceful struggle, but a difficult one nonetheless. It is the struggle for economic development – to ensure that health and education are available to the people of East Timor to they can reach their best potential.
Much has been made of the oil in the Timor sea. Under present arrangement Timor will get 90 per cent of the royalties and Australia will get 10 per cent. There has been some criticism of Australia on this ground, with a suggestion that all the royalties should go to Timor. This is a narrow view. If Australia is to get 10 per cent of the royalties, there will be incentive enough to see that more likely the extraction is properly run, with proper accounting, auditing and environmental standards. It will be better for East Timor to have 90 per cent of something than 100 per cent of nothing. Indeed, the oil might be more a curse than a blessing. Too often, developing nations with huge resources fail to develop or pass on the fruits of their resources to the people. Angola and Papua New Guinea are classic examples. The more resources, it seems, the more the power elite of the emerging country engage in corruption based upon the potential of those resources to lien their own pockets, rather than act to develop them responsibly in the interest of the nation as a whole. The potential for mismanagement, corruption and abuse of power in Timor is very high. From both a Timorese and Australian perspective, the hopes are that this will not happen. The Australian role in the Timor Gap oil must look beyond the 10 per cent Australian share as a source of wealth. It must be seen as a chance to ensure that the East Timorese get the opportunity to avoid the experience of other developing nations with big wealth in the ground and learn from the Australian experience (somewhat flawed as it is) of translating wealth in the ground to better living standards for the broad mass of people. It means concentrating of health, education, excellent public administration and sound political systems.
A great danger here is the dominance of Fretilin – the political movement – and Falintil – its military arm. They dominate the newly elected legislature and executive. Next election, though, the likelihood is that they will not do so well because expectations are high and impossible to meet. The danger is that if they lose the majority, the military arm might use force to precent a change of power.
Another danger is the entrenching of the present political elite through the imposition of Portuguese as an official language – it is the language of the former Portuguese colonial power. The theory was that it would give the new country more identity. But fewer than 5 per cent of the people speak it – mostly the educated elite. But why waste the effort teaching people a language that is not widely spoken in the world. If identity is and issue, Tetum is the local language, and should be used officially. Language education efforts should be directed to English and Indonesia will be important languages economically.
Australia and Indonesia must continue to support Timor. Australia has a key role in providing money, but it must be accompanied with help that will ensure a democratic future.