Whenever the Liberal Party is out of power – either and federal or state level – its members have a habit of changing parliamentary leaders, usually in ambush coups.
And so it was on Monday that the Opposition Liberal Leader in NSW, Kerry Chikarovski, was ambushed on Monday. She was tapped on the shoulder by a group of younger, less conservative, MPs who told her that her leadership would be challenged by John Brogden, who will turn 33 on Thursday, the day the vote on the challenge takes place.
The extraordinary element of the ambush was its embarrassing timing. The state party’s annual council was held on Sunday. And at that meeting Prime Minister John Howard went out of his was to praise Mrs Chikarovski as the person to become the next Premier of NSW – to the usual hoop-la that accompanies such endorsements. He said that Mrs Chikarovski had the support of all the Federal Liberal MPs and that no election was unwinnable or unloseable, so Mrs Chikarovski could win with a steady release of policy in the year up to the election.
Mr Howard’s intelligence about what is going on in his own party – albeit at a state level – is not as good as it should be. Less than 24 hours later, Mrs Chikarovski’s political career was under threat from her own side. Certainly, on this occasion nobody told him.
NSW goes to the polls in a year’s time. Premier Bob Carr will be seeking a third term. Mr Carr is comfortably ahead in the polls, but a third term is always difficult. Moreover, as Premiers Wayne Goss, Nick Greiner and Jeff Kennett found to their cost, being in a strong position is no guarantee of electoral success – come polling days voters can be fickle. Nonetheless, Mrs Chikarovski has a difficulty that has obviously disturbed her parliamentary colleagues. It is one thing for an Opposition Leader to be behind or unknown, but Mrs Chikarovski – according to the polls is actively disliked. Newspoll puts her disapproval rating at 42 per cent. The voters know her and they do not like what they see.
If Mrs Brogden wins, it will be the second time the Liberals have changed leader in NSW a short time out from the election. Just four months before the 1999 election Peter Collins was ditched for Mrs Chikarovski – the result was a handsome win for Labor.
If Mr Brogden wins he will need a 6.6 per cent swing for Labor to lose its majority and a further swing in some seats to defeat enough independents to gain government. It is a huge task – its high-risk strategy speaks of desperation to win.
If Mr Brogden wins, NSW voters will have an interesting choice. They will be choosing between the left of the Liberal Party and the right of the Labor Party. Mr Carr has been notoriously conservative on social issues. He has run vigorous law-and-order campaigns. He has warned against more immigration – on purely environmental grounds, though some voters will applaud for non-environmental reasons. He has endorsed mandatory detention. Mr Brogden is more a small-l liberal.
Mr Howard says he does not like Premiers conferences without any Coalition Premiers. But on many issues Mr Howard would see more eye to eye with Mr Carr and Queensland Labor Premier Peter Beattie than Mr Brogden.
Winning at any cost is increasingly more important than political ideology in Australia.