It is time for Prime Minister John Howard to engage in the domestic election campaign. It is less than three weeks until voting day, and it is not enough for him to wrap himself in the flag and pretend Australia is facing some major external threat and full-scale war. Australia will have a maximum of 150 soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan. Our Navy will be doing some patrolling thousands of kilometres from land-locked Afghanistan and our Air Force, even if it did fly over Afghanistan, would not meet any threat. If anything the operation should be described as a police action, rather than a military one, and its running is largely being directed by the Americans anyway. The operation – if it must be run — could be run as effectively by Labor leader Kim Beazley as Mr Howard. The two parties have absolutely no difference in policy on the so-called war or terror, so it should not be a significant issue in the election campaign.
The danger for Mr Howard and the Coalition voters seem to be beginning to recognise this and are ranging their thoughts back to domestic matters. If Mr Howard plays only the war and refugee cards, he might find his absence on domestic issues costing him the election. It will certainly deprive voters of a fully informed contest.
The latest AC Nielsen poll published in the Fairfax newspapers indicates that Labor is picking up support. Just after the Tampa refugee crisis in the middle of last month, the Coalition was 16 percentage points ahead of Labor and set for an increased majority. Two weeks ago it was 15 points and now it is just six. On a two-party preferred basis the Coalition is just two percentage points ahead. The two-party preferred vote is significant. It reveals that much of the Coalition gain has come from One Nation – that is probably the anti-refugee, anti-immigration, anti-Asia vote. The Coalition appears to have won that from the refugee crisis. But the subsequent international events do not seem to be having the same effect for the Coalition. People are rightly questioning whether Australia should be sending troops to Afghanistan. It is not the automatic vote winner that Mr Howard thinks.
For the first time more than half the people feel Opposition Leader Kim Beazley is doing a good job.
In the past week – aside from a couple of functions relating to the international crisis – Mr Beazley has been plugging education and health. Mr Howard has been playing the international stage. Mr Beazley seemed to win the television debate the weekend before last and seems to be swinging the campaign his way. His GST roll-back, although a fair time off and fairly piecemeal, seems to have struck some resonance. He has been seen as more forward looking than Mr Howard.
It is now time for the Coalition to look at domestic issues and present a vision for a third term in Government that says more than “”trust us in these troubled times”.
It is also time for the Coalition to do some explaining about major events during its stewardship, particularly the failure of Ansett and HIH and the subsequent failure of government and industry structures to preserve employee entitlements.
Overshadowing this is the question of Coalition leadership – the very subject upon which Mr Howard bases his credibility. Will he go the full term? More importantly what will be the shape of the ministry with the departure of the occupants of the key portfolios of Defence, Health and social welfare.
Australians need an election campaign based on the things that matter to them – not a police action far away.