It is difficult to see how 1550 Australian soldiers, four fighter aircraft, two refuellers and two maritime surveillance aircraft will make much difference in the mission by the United States to capture or kill those responsible for the September 11 attack on New York and Washington by suicide terrorists in hijacked aircraft. It is an act of symbolism to say that we are an ally of the United States.
Prime Minister John Howard was coy about where the ships and soldiers would be used. He said this was for security reasons. But it may be that they are not really needed at all, in a military sense, so there is no clear role for them in a specific place. At present the activity in chasing the perpetrators consists of intelligence work and some bombing in Afghanistan which appears to date to have been singularly unsuccessful in either killing Osama bin Laden, the man the US accuses of being responsible for the September 11 attack, or killing those the US accuses of harbouring him, the Taliban leadership in the Government of Afghanistan. Australia is already contributing whatever it can on the intelligence front, so we are now going to war to join the US in bombing Afghanistan and perhaps help in a later ground invasion to capture Osama bin Laden. We are not really needed militarily. We are just giving moral support.
It is unlikely the main objective can be achieved. Winter is coming on in Afghanistan. Any action by ground forces will be fraught with logistic difficulty, even if air strikes have weakened the opposition. It is likely that the mission will become protracted. It may be that the northern alliance which opposes the Taliban will seize the opportunity and help the US overthrow the Taliban regime. Aside from the fact that the northern alliance contains a large number of thugs and criminals, even that will not achieve the objective of capturing or killing Osama bin Laden.
History shows how elusive guerilla/terrorist/freedom fighter leaders can be. Dozens of them have escaped assassination and capture attempts: Castro, Gaddafi, Amin, Kenyatta, Lenin, Ho, Nkrumah, to name a few.
Australia has joined a dangerous and futile mission. It might make us a target for terrorist attack. Australian lives might be expended in the Afghan snows.
We might be drawn, as we were in Vietnam, into a war where aims are as uncertain as victory.
But there is a political undertow here. Mr Howard knows that every time he tears down the campaign stickers to make an announcement pertaining to the aftermath of the September 11 attack he will be putting himself forward as the nation’s leader and that is likely to help his election campaign because it will play on people’s security fears. Yesterday’s announcement comes at a time during the election campaign when domestic issues were just starting to get traction and after Mr Howard lost the televised debate against Opposition Leader Kim Beazley and Labor was starting to claw back in the polls. Moreover, the timing of the departure of the troops is just before polling day.
Yes, we have been allies and friends of the US for a long time. And yes, we owe them a debt from World War II, but the nature of that conflict – against a defined and invading enemy – was very different.
The acts of terrorism perpetrated on September 11 were horrific, but the bombing and perhaps invasion of Afghanistan, with the lost of more civilian lives, will only perpetuate the cycle of violence and is unlikely to bring the perpetrators to justice. But it seems the electorate demands action and revenge. Mr Howard has read that and has played on it.