The Australian Democrats are attracting 18 per cent of the vote in the ACT federal Senate race, according to polling done in conjunction with the ACT election.
The Democrats are picking up a swag of support from people who indicated that they would be voting Labor or to a lesser extent Liberal in the House of Representatives.
Democrats candidate Wayne Seivers put it down to the Tampa refugee issue and the war in Afghanistan. He said that many otherwise-Labor people had said they had moved to the Democrats because of Labor’s position on these questions.
The Canberra Times Datacol poll in the Senate gave Labor 33, Liberals 29, Democrats 18, Green 5, minor and independent 4 and undecided 12.
The same people asked about the House had Labor at 42, Liberals at 31, Greens 4, Democrats 10, minor and independent 2 and undecided 11.
On these figures sitting Labor members Bob McMullan in Fraser and Annette Ellis in the seat of Canberra would be re-elected. The House split for the major parties is similar to what happened in the ACT Legislative Assembly election.
In the Senate, Labor Senator Kate Lundy would be re-elected and Liberal Senator Margaret Reid would just get over the line.
In the Senate, a candidate needs 33.3 per cent of the vote after preferences to get elected.
Mr Seivers said, “”The seat is achievable for us, but it will take a lot of work.”
A lot of people were saying to him that “”Margaret is a nice lady but what has she done for the town.”
Canberra had taken a lot of hits from the Liberal Government in the past six years.
On the Datacol polling, if Senator Reid got an ordinary share of the undecided vote she would squeak over the line to get her 33.3 per cent quota. Any leakage of preferences from the other parties would be a bonus.
However, the Democrats are at the head of the ticket and unlike in 1998, One Nation has put the Democrats further down its preference ticket than Senator Reid.
Mr McMullan said the strong showing for the Democrats in the Senate could be explained by smart Canberra people recognising that the defeat of Margaret Reid was “”the only vehicle to send a message to John Howard that they do not like his anti-Canberra attitude”.
“”I don’t think it is a personal vote against Margaret Reid,” he said.
He thought the strong Democrat vote might also be disguising some vote for independent Ken Helm.
“”Either Seivers or Helm were in with a chance of dislodging Margaret [Reid],” he said.
The fact the high Democrat and lower Labor vote did not track across to the House of Representatives indicated that the amount of protest against Labor’s policy on refugees and Afghanistan would be only a small factor and that the anti-Howard factor was the major reason for the high Democrat vote in the Senate.
Senator Reid said she always had a difficult task. There was no room for complacency.
“”The result will depend on how the undecided go,” she said. “”I will leave no stone unturned until November 10.”
Senator Lundy said the figures demonstrated the Liberals were in serious trouble in the
Senate. Because the Democrats did well in the Senate last election, Canberrans saw that as a
way of defeating the Liberals.
“”It was the voice of Canberra judging Howard harshly,” she said.