The Queensland seat of Ryan is held by the retiring Minister for Defence, John Moore, on a margin of 59.5 to 40.5 on a two party preferred-basis. At the 1996 election Mr Moore got the seat on a 67 to 33 per cent margin. On any measure it is a very safe Liberal seat. Now Mr Moore has resigned, the question is whether the Labor Party should contest the by-election.
Labor got a swing of more than 7 per cent last election. So it is not coming off a low base. It would be a very difficult seat to win for Labor. Combined with that is the fact the Labor in Queensland has been going through a difficult patch – one of its own making. The machinations of the faction system have caught Labor out. An earlier attempt to clean up branch-stacking resulted in a new rule that prove credentials of a new branch member he or she had to be on the electoral role for that electorate. But it did not clean up the branch-stacking. Rather the stackers falsely registered people on the Commonwealth electoral roll in the electorate to be stacked. So rather than merely breaching Labor rules, they broke the Commonwealth Electorate Act as well. The branch stacking would ordinarily be Labor’s business alone. Now it is the business of law-enforcement authorities and indeed the whole community. Labor is on the nose in Queensland, mainly at a state level, but it is rubbing off federally. An independent inquiry in Queensland has heard confessions from Labor MPS and others about enrolling people contrary to law. Several have been expelled. One Labor member has been jailed. Labor has attempted to throw some mud back alleging branch stacking in the Liberal Party, particularly in the seat of Ryan. But it does not involve the Commonwealth Electoral Act and is not so public.
Labor, therefore, has more reason than the Coalition to lie low in Queensland. A by-election in the seat of Ryan might be as much as test of Labor credibility locally as a test of the Howard Government nationally. And with nearly 10 per cent start, Labor would find it very difficult to win. There have been by-election upsets in the past. The famous Bass by-election which was a portent for the defeat of the Whitlam Government in 1975 and the Namadgi by-election in the ACT which was a portent for the defeat of the Keating Government. Bass and Namadgi were very safe seats for the Government. The Opposition won them and won Government in each case with a year. In the case of Namadgi there was also some initial thought that the Liberals should not contest the safe labor seat caused by the resignation of Ros Kelly. That historical background puts a lot of pressure and expectation on Labor leader Kim Beazley. If he is to win Government, surely he must win Ryan would be the thought.
Given the difficulty of the task, the lack of Labor momentum and indeed labor looking poorly in Queensland, it is understandable that Mr Beazley might want to keep his powder dry and live to fight another day. A loss in Ryan, even with a swing to Labor, might prevent any Labor roll even beginning, the nervous Nellies would argue.
However, Mr Beazley should put aside these arguments. Given the Democrats are going to run anyway, so there will be a contest, Labor should be in it. It should keep faith with its supporters. Sure, the tea-leaf readers will be out in force as the results are posted, but they will not amount to much in the long-term. The important thing is that the Opposition should use every opportunity to take it up to the Government. Only when Governments are put under constant pressure do they either improve performance or fail and get replaced – either way the nation wins. Testing the Government is where the duty of the Opposition lies. So it should contest the seat.