It is now seven weeks since the attack on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. Some trends in the ill-conceived response by the United States are emerging. And they are not very encouraging.
The United States has not managed to capture, or even kill, any major terrorist or Taliban leader. To that extent it has not “”brought to justice” any of the perpetrators of the attacks. It means that the US and its allies, including Australia, are engaged in war to change the government of Afghanistan rather than a police operation to bring to justice the perpetrators of a crime. And with war inevitably comes the death and injury of many innocent people.
The death toll of innocent people is now mounting. It will probably overtake the death toll of innocent people who were at the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.
Even as a war, it is not going well for the US and its allies. If anything the resolve of the Afghan regime is hardening. Its wherewithal to engage in fighting on the ground in Afghanistan is still intact. Its enemies in Afghanistan, the northern “”alliance”, who have now become the US’s friends, have not done much in the way of capturing either territory or the hearts and minds of the populace. Indeed, there is growing evidence of vicious Taliban reprisals against those caught helping the northern alliance. Moreover, far from the US and the resistance capturing or killing Taliban leaders, it is the other way around. The Taliban has caught and murdered a key resistance leader. Winter is setting in, and there is little evidence of US military success toward dislodging the Taliban or capturing Osama bin Laden.
On the technical side, the war is not as clinical as presented in Washington. Afghan civilians are confusing yellow cluster bombs for the yellow food packages that the US is dropping in an attempt to win the propaganda war. And literally adding insult to injury, the US is now dropping messages to the population warning them about the packages – trouble is, the population is 75 per cent illiterate. Bombs have also hit Red Cross and other aid workers’ warehouses and offices. It is a repeat of the hi-tech hubris we heard during the gulf war.
Outside Afghanistan, the alliance put together by the US gets ever more fragile. As it contains several Moslem countries, it will get more shaky if the US continues its bombing campaign against Afghanistan during the up-coming holy month of Ramadan. Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan looks ever more shaky as its self-proclaimed president battles internal dissent. Even in Australia, the majority of public opinion is not in favour of the war. The foolish and bloody experience of following the US into Vietnam is still fresh in many people’s minds. It perhaps explains why the war is more popular in Britain than Australia. Moreover, many Australians think that by entering the war we might have made ourselves a target for terrorism.
The attacks on September 11 in the US were appalling crimes, but the methods of bringing the perpetrators to justice have been misguided. They will just continue the cycle of violence.
All of this was fairly predictable. But it was equally predictable that the reactions of the US and allied governments would be visceral rather than intelligent and clumsy rather than pointed.
It is now time for the US, Australia and other allies to take stock. The effectiveness of present policies must be reviewed and a new strategy worked out. Otherwise, the US and its allies will face the humiliation of not achieving the aims of finding and bringing to justice the September 11 criminals.