It is now likely the no-confidence motion against Kate Carnell will succeed now Independent Dave Rugendyke has said he will support it. But there is no guarantee Labor’s Jon Stanhope will become Chief Minister. Stanhope himself admits as much. But that is the most likely outcome.
Also, there is virtually no chance of an early election.
There are several possibilities.
Under the ACT Self-Government Act, the Federal Act of Parliament which is in effect the ACT’s Constitution, a successful motion of no-confidence in the Chief Minister must be followed by the election by secret ballot in the Assembly of a new one. The Act does not specify a time for the vote, but it must be within 30 days, or the Federal Minister could step in and call an early election, something all MLAs will surely work to avoid.
The election for a new Chief Minister is likely to be immediate. It depends on the Speaker and the Assembly itself. Until the vote for a new Chief Minister, Deputy Chief Minister Gary Humphries would be Acting Chief Minister.
The vote of no-confidence is separate from the election of a new Chief Minister. Just because an MLAs has voted no-confidence in Carnell is no guarantee he or she would vote for Stanhope in an election for Chief Minister.
The ACT has no Governor to “”call” upon someone to “”form a Government”. In our system, the Assembly elects the Chief Minister who then appoints three other MLAs as ministers.
All Liberal MLAs have pledged support for Carnell and have said if the no-confidence motion goes through, none of them would stand as Chief Minister. They will nominate their leader, Carnell, as Chief Minister. Gary Humphries says you cannot cut off the head of the Government and not have the Government fall. It may be bluff. It may be a threat to the independents that they will have to carry the opprobrium of kicking out a Liberal Government and installing Labor. That would not worry Osborne, but Rugendyke and conservative Trevor Kaine are anti-Labor. Though Kaine is perhaps more anti-Carnell than anti-Labor.
Who knows, Rugendyke (who is utterly anti-Labor) might feel that the no-confidence motions was punishment and humiliation enough for Carnell and now she could start with a new slate.
Stanhope says that if Carnell goes, there is no need for a change of government. Humphries or Smyth could take over. That would be his ideal scenario, but it won’t happen, because no-one will nominate them.
Thre will be a secret ballot among the 17 MLAs between Stanhope and Carnell. (If an independent or minor stood he or she would be wiped out int he first round.) Most likely Stanhope would win (but nothing is certain). Labor’s six MLAs would then take government until the election on the third Saturday in October next year, the fixed election date.
The danger for Stanhope is that if he goes into Government now, the honeymoon might not last till next year and he would get a poorer result for Labor than if he went into the election from Opposition.
Incidentally, it is unlikely Carnell would leave the Assembly because she will get fresh imeptus from leading the Opposition. But if she did, there is no guarantee a Liberal would take her place. Her votes from the previous election are retrieved and redistributed. A lot of them were personal, not party, votes and on count back might drift to minors, independents or Labor.