The poll showed also that Jon Stanhope was preferred as Chief Minister over both Kate Carnell and Gary Humphries.
The poll was taken as the Liberal Party, Osborne independents and Michael Moore were looking at the option of having an early election to resolve the matter. The ACT usually has a fixed term with the next election due on the third Saturday in October next year. It would require a change in the Electoral Act to have an early election. That would require nine MLAs to agree.
Should an election be called it is likely to be held on either Saturday December 2nd or 9th.
Sources close to the Liberal Party said yesterday (sun15oct) the party believed an early election was its only saviour.
“”Everyone’s been looking at it over the weekend,” Mrs Carnell said. “”It’s a decision for the team and we’ll make that tomorrow (Monday).”
The opinion poll had 48 per cent in favour of an early election, 35 against and 17 undecided or neutral.
The number of people wanting Mrs Carnell to resign has jumped since the last poll which was taken in June 1999, just before the last no-confidence motion. Then it was 50 per cent for her resigning, 41 against and 9 undecided.
Mrs Carnell survived that motion when Osborne independents, Paul Osborne and Dave Rugendyke, supported her, citing the need to see the Auditor-General’s report on the Bruce Stadium. Ten days ago Mr Rugendyke said he would now vote for a no-confidence motion which meant it would succeed. The Liberals’ position has been that if Mrs Carnell goes, then the whole Government falls. They would not nominate the deputy Gary Humphries for the job, or any other Liberal.
Mr Osborne initiated the election idea after he said he would vote no-confidence, but was uncomfortable changing Government to Labor without the people having a say.
The poll showed that between Mr Humphries and Mr Stanhope, voters had much the same split as between Mrs Carnell and Mr Stanhope. That might indicate that the loyal party vote is at 39 per cent and that the large extra personal vote that Mrs Carnell attracted at the 1995 and 1998 elections has deserted her.
The 10 percentage point increase in people who want Mrs Carnell to resign comes in the wake of the 12-volume report by Auditor-General John Parkinson. It found no fraud or corruption, but that the project had been badly managed, that taxpayers did not get value for money, that two illegal actions had been taken on raising and spending funds, and that projections of crowds and private-sector involvement were hopelessly optimistic. The report found an absence of documentation linking Mrs Carnell to the detailed management of the project.
Mrs Carnell said the poll results showed the Government was “”not doing too badly.”
“”The Liberals have never been ahead in the polls except at elections,” she said.
“”I take the view on resignation seriously.
“”The Bruce Stadium issue has bitten.”
Mrs Carnell said she was pleased to have polled well as preferred Chief Minister as Canberra was traditionally a Labor electorate.
She said the high level of support for an early election showed the community wanted to have a say.
Opposition Leader Jon Stanhope downplayed the preferred Chief Minister result, saying it was irrelevant.
“”The fact that 60 per cent of the people of Canberra believe the Chief Minister should not be in the office she’s in is a recogniition by them of the seriousness of her shortcomings,” he said.
“”The no-confidence motion is certainly vindicated.”
Inmdependent MLA Michael Moore said the poll produced the sort of results to be expected part way through a Government’s term.
He said the 48 per cent support for an election was surprising but showed the community felt let down by the Assembly.
“”Handing a decision like this back to the people has a lot of merit.”
Mr Moore admitted his seat could be hard to keep if an early election was called.
“”I’m probably one of the members at highest risk but I’ve always said I act in the way I think is best for the community.”
Non-Liberal MLAs keen for Mrs Carnell’s scalp have branded the early election ploy “”outlandish”, an “”absolute scandal” and “”not in the spirit of the Self Government Act.”
A spokesman for the Labor Party said the ALP would welcome a December poll fought on the Bruce Stadium issue.
“”We’d love it,” he said.
“”Labor is well set-up with a preselection timetable already in place.
Newly-elected president of the Liberal Party, Gary Kent, said the party was ready if an election was called.
“”Whenever the party faced an election it would do extremely well,” Mr Kent said.
“”We would be fully behind the Assembly members.”
There is a very high awareness of the Bruce Stadium question (95 per cent). A majority still think the stadium redevelopment is a good thing for Canberra (58 per cent), but that is down on 16 months ago when 65 per cent thought it was a good thing.
Since last year, the big change has come in the attitude of people who generally vote Liberal. Many more now (44 per cent) want her to resign than last year (28 per cent).
Mrs Carnell’s disapproval rating, at 56 per cent, is the highest since she was polled. Thirty-three per cent approve her performance and 11 are uncommitted. More people (37 per cent) are uncommitted about Mr Stanhope. Thirty-two per cent approve and 31 per cent disapprove his performance as Opposition leader.
Mr Humphries comes out well in the poll. His approval rating is at 41 per cent, higher than either Mrs Carnell or Mr Stanhope. Mr Humphries does better among males, young and swinging voters. Mr Stanhope among females and older voters.
On the question of an early election, there is little correlation with other indicators, though Labor and Liberal voters are more in favour than swingers. Slightly more Labor voters (56 per cent) want it than Liberal voters (52).
The principal of Datacol, Malcolm Mearns, said that in the last 12 months Mrs Carnell had lost 6 percentage points in approval rating (Down from 39 to 33). Mr Stanhope was down by a similar margin from 38 to 32. Mrs Carnell was now back to the same percentage as she was when she defeated Rosemary Follett in 1995.