There have been at some encouraging signs on the Indian sub-continent in the past few days. For the first time in two years there have been high-level talks between long-time enemies India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf had talks with the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee near the Taj Mahal in Agra.
It would have been too much to expect a wide-ranging, all-embracing agreement to come out of these talks. In particular, it would have been naive to imagine that there would have been agreement over the disputed territory of Kashmir. India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads over Kashmir since partition in 1947. At partition, it was understood that while initially Kashmir would be administered by India, after a couple of years there would be an act of self-determination in Kashmir to determine whether the territory would go to Pakistan or to India. The act of self-determination has never taken place. Pakistan believes that in any plebiscite the Muslim majority in Kashmir would vote to go to Pakistan. This is why India has resisted any call for a vote.
India and Pakistan have gone to war twice over the territory. An undeclared war began to years ago in northern Kashmir and there has been an uneasy ceasefire in the past seven months.
The talks over the past two days could be described as a success merely because the parties have agreed to further talks at a high level and because Pakistan has invited Mr Vajpayee to visit Islamabad. Continuation of dialogue between the two nations has become more imperative since both became openly nuclear powers in 1998.
Pakistan still maintains a fairly hard line on Kashmir. It says that Kashmir is a core issue and until it is discussed and resolved there can be no progress on other matters. Conversely, India says that Kashmir is not up for negotiation and that there can be no vote that would lead to the territory becoming part of Pakistan. India accuses Pakistan of supporting Muslim guerrillas and of sending guerrillas from Pakistani territory into Kashmir. Pakistan describes any insurgents against Indian rule as home-grown ones.
It will take a mighty diplomatic effort to bridge the gap between those polar positions. The talks in the past couple of days are at least a starting point.
There is a danger that General Musharraf is using his invitation to India as a means of enhancing his position domestically. General Musharraf recently declared himself President of Pakistan. When he took over in his bloodless coup in 1999 there was some thought that it was a temporary military takeover in the face of endemic corruption under civilian rule and that there would be a return to democracy sooner rather than later. General Musharraf’s declaration that he is president coupled by his visit to India in that role indicate that he sees for himself long-term political prospects. It would be unfortunate if a resolution of the Kashmiri dispute and other differences with India were merely a pawn in those political aspirations.
There is a paradox here. While the military-led Pakistan seeks an act of self-determination in Kashmir, the world’s largest democracy, India, is resisting any democratic expression in the territory.
However, Mr Vajpayee since becoming Prime Minister in 1998 has shown considerable goodwill to Pakistan by his bus diplomacy in going to Pakistan by road in 1999, by initiating more dialogue, easing visa requirements and promoting trade. But because he initiated nuclear tests in 1998 (albeit largely for domestic political purposes) he has a lot of catching up to do. There is still a long way to attaining a settlement in Kashmir, but presents signs indicate some cause for optimism.