If the Government’s Budget is defeated, it can carry on for a short time under the Treasurer’s advance from the previous year.
The likelihood is, though, that Chief Minister Kate Carnell would resign. She and Treasurer Gary Humphries have indicated that the Government would stand or fall on the Budget.
If the Chief Minister resigns, the Assembly must elect a new Chief Minister before any other business.
Usually, if a Budget were defeated, the same numbers that defeated the Budget would be used to install the Opposition as Government, with Jon Stanhope becoming Chief Minister.
But the present situation is not usual. If the Budget goes down it would be solely because independents Dave Rugendyke and Paul Osborne object to funding for the heroin injecting room. But that is being provided because a majority of the Assembly has approved legislation for the injecting room. But on the question of who should be Chief Minister, they might still prefer Mrs Carnell and a Liberal Government, especially as Mr Stanhope supports the injecting room as does all his party. (Only some of the Liberals do.)
Mr Rugendyke and Mr Osborne’s “”principled” stand against the injecting room by voting down the Budget would look pretty silly if it resulted in a Government even more committed to an injecting room. This is why United Canberra MLA Trevor Kaine has a more principled stand. He opposes the injecting room, but accepts that it is law and must be funded.
If Mrs Carnell were returned as Chief Minister, and still her Budget were blocked, that might result in the Assembly becoming “”incapable of effectively performing its functions” within the meaning of the Self-Government Act (a Federal Act). That could result in the Governor-General (on the advice of the Federal Government) dissolving the Assembly and ordering a new election.
It is the only circumstance in which the Assembly can go to an early election. Unlike in the states where the Premier determines the date of the election, the ACT Assembly has a fixed term of three years. Mrs Carnell cannot of herself call an early election to solve the impasse. The election is held on the third (check) Saturday in October. (Previously is was February, but this term was extended as a one off so future elections could be held in October not to co-incide with summer holidays.)
It may be that the mere rejection of the Budget and the failure of Mrs Carnell to resign might itself be enough to amount to the Assembly being “”incapable of effectively performing its functions”. The precedent for that would be the federal situation in 1975, but it is more likely that the Federal Government would wait for the Assembly to have a no-confidence motion and a vote for a new Chief Minister first.
Practicalities may be more important than legal niceties, however. Mr Stanhope might not want power now, a year and a bit before an election must be held. He might prefer to wait in Opposition in the hope that Mrs Carnell’s Government becomes more unpopular.