The war or words and threatened violence that led up to the election of Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian has, thank goodness, subsided into a war of semantics. Mr Chen’s inauguration speech at the weekend drew back from his promises during the election campaign to seek full independence from the mainland. And the reaction from the communist regime in Beijing was helpful. It opened an offer for talks through some recognised intermediary. The whole episode was encouragingly vague. Everybody knows that Taiwan is independent in fact. All that is missing is recognition of the fact by major nations of the world and a seat in the United Nations. Taiwan satisfies all the requirements of international law (with one possible reservation) to be recognised as an independent nation. And this is the more so since the election of Mr Chen. He was elected in a free and fair democratic election. He ended the 50-year rule of Kuomintang Nationalists – most of it undemocratic and forceful. It as the first peaceful and democratic handover of power in the history of China.
The only obstacle to full independence is the fact that the most populous nation on earth, with a huge standing army, would object to the point of using force. Very wisely, no-one is calling their bluff, including Mr Chen. While merely a candidate for the presidency, Mr Chen could advocate formal independence without the Government in Beijing feeling it must satisfy honour with some form of action. Rather it warned and threatened and moved troops about. Unnerving though it was, it not actually do anything. But as head of government, Mr Chen was in a different position. Wisely, he realised that to declare full independence unilaterally might invite exactly the opposite – invasion from the mainland and subjugation. Despite decades of support from the US, there would be no guarantee that the US would come to Taiwan’s defence. And the UN could do nothing with China having a veto in the Security Council.
A pragmatic core of the international community prefers to let sleeping dragons lie rather than follow strict principle and recognise Taiwan. The only reason not to recognise Taiwan in international law is that the Taiwanese Government cannot claim to have full control of its territory and borders because as soon as it declares independence they will immediately become insecure and vulnerable to attack from a provoked mainland.
So Mr Chen has gone along with the pretence that there is one China so Taiwan can get on with the reality that there are two.
Mr Chen made some sensible concessions. He said that during his term he would not declare independence, or change the national title or promote a referendum to change the status quo on independence or reunification. He went further towards accommodating the mainland by formally abandoning his predecessor’s insistence that any talks with the mainland take place on a state-to-state basis. But he did not fully bow to the mainland’s demand of acknowledging the “”One China” principle.
It seems we can breathe easy until the next election in Taiwan. The test of the formal status quo, however, will not be democracy in Taiwan, but democracy on the mainland. If that happened, Taiwan might happily join such a democracy. Alternatively, a democratic China would be happy to allow Taiwan to separate if that is what the Taiwanese want.
It will be a long wait. But that is preferably to forcing an issue that most probably result in the full-scale invasion of Taiwan. The pretence is worth it.