Prime Minister John Howard may have read too much into the indefinite postponement of the visit to Australia by Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid. Mr Howard said that after Australia’s intervention in East Timor Australia’s relations with Indonesia could never be the same. Well, that much is obvious. But Indonesia’s relations with other countries is changing, too. That is because Indonesia itself has changed politically in a major way. Indonesia now has an elected President. The army still has significant influence and the institutions that enable the rule of law have not fully developed, but Indonesia is now a democratic country. It would be a mistake to regard Indonesia as monolithic. It may well be that some people in the Indonesia Government and the Army carry a resentment against Australia for its role in East Timor, but Mr Wahid himself has shown no sign of that. Indeed, all his statements point to wanting good relations with both Australia and Timor. That was made clear yesterday when Mr Wahid said he would like a three-way meeting with Mr Howard and Timorese lead Xanana Gusmao in Australia or Indonesia soon.
That makes the earlier postponement very puzzling. Was it an over-reaction to the very minor spying scandal involving a junior officer in the Australian peace-keeping force in East Timor. Then there were the unsubstantiated allegations by Indonesian officials of Australian spy aircraft flying over Indonesia. These events run contrary to recent events indicating an improvement in Australian-Indonesian relations. Indonesia has made extra effort to rein in militia in West Timorese refugee camps, even if it is not enough to allow all refugees to feel free enough from intimidation to return home to the east if they wish. More importantly, we are seeing a change in Indonesia’s approach to illegal immigrants on their way to Australia. Instead of turning a blind eye, Indonesian authorities have arrested illegals before they could set sail.
The Australian-Indonesian relationship is in a state of flux. That may have more to do with divergent views jostling for position in Jakarta than the manifestation of any settled position by the Indonesian Government. Yesterday’s announcement makes it clear that the Australian Government need not be too concerned or worried that its actions in Timor will damage the long-term relationship. It should be obvious that Mr Wahid wants a good relationship, even if those about him want to use Australia as some sort of bogey for domestic political ends.
Mr Howard is right to say that the relationship has changed, but ultimately that will be for the better. Gone will be sycophancy and complicity that marked the relations from the moment Portugal left Timor. With a democratic Indonesia gone, too, will be the nonsense that Indonesia is a threat. If Australia does not get too excited about every nuance and utterance coming out of Jakarta, there is now a great opportunity to move on to one of greater involvement and partnership.
These are critical times for the relationship. It is imperative that Australia, Timor and Indonesia build co-operative structures to help development in Timor, investment in Indonesia, joint environmentally sensitive exploitation of oil in the Timor gap and to support each other in closer relations with other Asian nations.
Australia needs Indonesia (and Thailand) as a friend in court in South-East Asia to ameliorate Malaysia’s occasional hostility to Australia, which is not likely to fade while Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad remains in office.
For, it is important that Australian politicians and officials do not do too much tea-leaf reading and concentrate on the main issues. The stop-go Wahid visit is perhaps as puzzling for Australians as in former times the juxtaposition of the overt fawning by Prime Minister Paul Keating with the open hostility of much of the Australia press was puzzling for Indonesians.
After yesterday’s announcement it would be better not to read the earlier postponement as a snub to Australia. Rather it was probably the result of some unresolved internal tension within the Indonesia Government and perhaps the army. For now, let’s look forward to welcoming President Wahid when he comes.