Proposals to change the electoral boundaries in the ACT, like those put yesterday, will have a profound effect on who is elected and ultimately how we are governed.
At present we have three electorates. Molonglo in the centre is a seven-seat electorate. Brindabella based on Tuggeranong is a five-seat electorate. Ginninderra based on Belconnen is also a five-seat electorate. That makes 17 seats.
Under the Hare-Clark system we have multi-member electorates. This was approved twice in a referendum. The system is more complex than the system of the federal House of Representatives, but it is better suited to small places like the ACT and Tasmania.
The reason is that the ACT is a fairly uniform place. If the political mood swings it swings evenly. There are no pockets of die-hard Labor or die-hard Liberal voting like there are in the Australia-wide profile. In any national election Melbourne Ports, Newcastle and Fremantle will always vote Labor. Toorak and the North Shore will always vote Liberal. It means that nationally we will always get an Opposition.
In the ACT, however, if you extrapolate electoral figures from previous elections into single member seats you would get results like 16 Labor, 1 Independent or 15 Liberal, 2 Labor. The results would be so skewed even from fairly even two-party preferred votes that there would be no effective Opposition. A 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the ACT could lead to the Government having 16 seats and the Opposition just 1.
So we have multi-member electorates of uneven numbers. It means that the Opposition, be it Labor or Liberal will get a reasonable number of seats.
At the last election Labor got two seats in each electorate. The Liberals got two seats in each of the five member electorates and three seats in the seven-member electorate. And there were four independent and minor party candidates elected – a Green and a residents’ advocate in Molonglo and a Christian-right independent in each of the other electorates (let’s call those four shrapnel).
The likelihood is that the five-member electorates will always produce two Liberal, two Labor and a shrapnel member. The seven-member electorate will produce two Liberal, Two Labor , two shrapnel and one other from one of the major parties which usually will determine the result of the election.
At present the seven-member electorate, Molonglo, is based in the centre of Canberra. The centre of Canberra, especially the inner north, houses a greater proportion of Green, residents-advocacy groups and people who support euthanasia, abortion and drug-law reform.
The two outer seats, particularly Brindabella based on Tuggeranong, house a greater proportion of conservatives, supporters of the Christian right and opponents of euthanasia, abortion and drug law reform.
Population changes in Canberra have meant that the electoral boundaries must change. In doing that the Electoral Commissioner must take account of things like community of interests. The commissioner must also take account of population trends.
That has posed a big problem. Gungahlin is the big population growth area of Canberra. At present it is in the seat of Molonglo. But it does not sit well there. People of Gungahlin tend to be young, with children, in new houses, in debt, on lower incomes. People in the rest of Molonglo, particularly the inner south tend to be older, richer and childless.
Gungahlin sits better in Ginninderra. But that would make Molonglo too small for seven seats. Solution, move Weston Creek as well to Ginninderra and you have a large electorate to support seven seats and Molonglo, comprising just the inner north and inner south, would have five seats.
It sounds reasonable, but it has a profound effect on the existing a prospective members.
If Molonglo has just five members it can only support two Labor (as now), two Liberals (so one of the present three must go) and shrapnel residents-Green (so one of the present two must go).
It means the end of Michael Moore’s political career. He usually wins the last seat. He struggles to win one of seven seats, so cannot possibly win one of five seats.
It means Gary Humphries, a resident of Weston Creek, would move from Molonglo to the new seven-seat Ginninderra. The Liberals’ Bill Stefaniak would retain his seat in Ginninderra and Harold Hird would struggle to hold a third seat for the Liberals (Government would depend on that seat).
Christian Right independent Dave Rugendyke who squeaked in when Ginninderra was a five-seat electorate would romp in if it went to seven seats. Labor would keep their present two and fight Hird for the third (and decide Government on it). The seventh seat would probably go to the Greens.
Down south in Brindabella, it would be Liberal 2, Labor 2 and Christian right Paul Osborne, as now.
Trevor Kaine, once Liberal, now independent has no real hope of getting seat.
The new proposal suits the major parties, in particular the Liberal Party.
The vote is more polarised in Ginninderra than Molonglo. The inner area has a greater propensity to vote for shrapnel.
The new proposal cements Rugendyke’s position which used to be shaky. He is much more likely to support the Liberals than Labor. He snatched what should have been a natural Green seat last election and with it handed Government to the Liberals.
Sure, the Liberals technically lose Michael Moore, but the people who voted for him are not natural Liberals, so his likely defeat at the next election, if he stands, cannot count as a Liberal loss.
In short, under the new arrangements, the fight for government moves away from the flaky and shaky environment of Molonglo into Ginninderra. Molonglo and Brindabella will neutralise each other with two Liberal two Labor each and a shrapnel left in Molonglo (Osborne) neutralising a shrapnel right in Brindabella (Tucker).
In Ginninderra, it will be two each to the majors, plus Rugendyke and an almighty fight for the last two seats among Greens, the Democrats, Independents and majors to determine government. That fight held in Ginninderra suits the majors more than such a fight in Molonglo because the people are different.