Ulster Unionist leader and David Trimble should have risked it. Instead he walked away from power-sharing with Sinn Fein. Mr Trimble is, at least notionally, Northern Ireland’s First Minister. Last year his party won the most seats in an election in Northern Ireland. Under a power-sharing arrangement set out in last year’s Good Friday peace agreement he was to head a four-party, 12-member Cabinet. Under that arrangement, Sinn Fein would have got two seats. Sinn Fein is the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, though Sinn Fein’s leader, Gerry Adams, denies he has any influence over the IRA. The denial lacks credibility, though it is true that Mr Adams cannot control extreme elements in the IRA.
Mr Trimble is happy to share power with the predominantly Catholic Social Democratic and Labor Party, but he draws the line at being in a Cabinet with Sinn Fein until the IRA begins de-commissioning weapons and commits itself to fully disarm. He said he could not allow his party to join in government with an active and armed terrorist organisation.
The IRA, meanwhile, refuses to begin decommissioning until Sinn Fein is in the Government, and has remained silent on full decommissioning. It has not responded to the compromise worked out by Britain and Ireland to commit itself to fully disarm by May next year.
It is a silly stand-off. The IRA should at least hand in a few weapons to give Mr Trimble enough ground to persuade his more hardline colleagues to give peace a chance. The fact they will not indicates, perhaps, that they do not want power-sharing because it would legitimise and perpetuate partition, but would rather wait to achieve their ultimate aim of a united Ireland – a dream they say was snatched by the British under threat of war with partition of Ireland in 1922.
That view is flawed. If the Catholic minority as a whole, including the hardliners, joined a joint administration, in time the Protestants in Northern Ireland would lose their fear and be more willing to join a united Ireland. But while ever there is rule from London and the threat of violence, they will cling to union with Britain. The IRA should have seen the new Assembly not as a compromise of their dream, but a step to it. Gerry Adams and Sinn Fein have seen in that way – that they are more likely to get a united Ireland through peaceful means than violent ones.
The other flaw with the IRA view is that the people of Northern Ireland will not stomach the violence any more. That is because they have less reason to be angry and fearful now. There is less discrimination either legal or economic, especially with the overriding influence of the European Union, with its human rights forums.
And the EU influence also makes Protestant fear of the south ridiculous. The new European ideals of religious, racial and social tolerance make the hardline Protestant ramblings foolish.
Mr Trimble was fearful that if he allowed Sinn Fein in, enough of his Ulster Unionists could move to dump him as leader. He should have called their bluff as he has in the past – moves that earned him the Nobel Peace prize. Peace requires risk.
Where to now? The fact the IRA is not using its weapons is more important than the fact of decommissioning. Mr Trimbole will need some time to persuade his party to form government, even if the IRA says nothing. He has to persuade them that once the government is formed with Sinn Fein in it, the pretend separation between the IRA and Sinn Fein will become reality. The IRA will have nowhere to go and will lose its support base as Catholics turn to the Northern Ireland Assembly to air grievances and to achieve aspirations.