It would be a tragedy if the Good Friday agreement of a little more than a year ago failed to achieve lasting peace in Northern Ireland. There is a danger now that the agreement will not be implemented because of a dispute over the decommissioning of IRA weapons. Talks in Belfast this week have come to an impasse.
The central trouble is that the Good Friday agreement specified a date by which all weapons should be decommissed – May 2000 — but did not specify a starting date for decommissioning. Under the agreement Sinn Fein is entitled to take two seats on the Executive of the new multi-party government in Northern Ireland. It wants to take those seats without beginning the decommissioning. The Ulster Unionists, led by First Minister David Trimbole, want to see at least a start of decommissioning before Sinn Fein takes its seats. That puts the British Government in a bind. Before the new Northern Ireland Administration can begin functioning Britain must formally hand over power. It would be disastrous if Britain handed over power to an Executive which did not include Sinn Fein. That would result, presumably, in an almost immediate resumption of violence by the IRA which would spiral with inevitable revenge attacks. But it will be equally disastrous if the failure of the IRA to begin decommissioning is seen to postpone the hand over of power indefinitely.
Sinn fein may well argue that it has not power to ensure IRA decommissioning begins, but that is sophistry. The two organisations are intimately links. If Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams gave the word, decommissioning would begin.
The Irish and British Government both want to see decommissioning begin as a confidence building exercise before the new governemnt in Northern Ireland formally takes power. On the other hand, the IRA, after decades of discrimination against minority Catholics in the province, wants to keep all its weapons as “”security” if the new arrangements do not work to give a reasonable amount of power to Catholics in what is to be a new power-sharing arrangement. Weapons to the IRA carry a lot of symbolism as well as, in their view, the only means of power when civic participation has been denied.
Unfortunately, Sinn Fein-IRA does not see that civic participation is now within grasp and there is no longer any need for weapons. The Sinn Fein-IRA position is pig-headed and illogical. If they are bound under the Good Friday agreement to decommission all their weapons by May next year, surely it would not hurt to make a small start now before the new Government formally takes control. It would be a strong gesture of goodwill with no practical concession of firepower. But after so many years of violence, trust is in short supply.
If Sinn Fein-IRA refuses, then Mr Trimbole will have to exercise once more the patience and magnanimity that earned him the joint Nobel Peace Prize. He will have to allow Sinn Fein to take its two seats in his government without the commencement of decommissioning and hope that the exercise of civic power and responsibility by Sinn Fein representatives will engender an early change of outlook so decommissioning can begin as soon as possible after the new Government takes charge and finish on time to meet the Good Friday agreement. The alternative is too grim to imagine. Better the IRA keep their weapons but keep them idly because Sinn Fein is sharing power than the IRA keep their weapons and start using them.
Only when the several parties in Northern Ireland get together to work on practical thigns like schols, health care, parking, housing etc will goodwill emerge and, more importantly, will religious differences become secondary to political differences so some Cathoics and Protestants find themselves on the same side of a political debate against some other Cathoics and Protestants on the other side of the argument, be it one about environment, literacy testing, hospital waiting lists or whatever. The quicker that time comes the better.