Crime rates in the ACT are falling.
Yes, that’s right, falling.
Yet police and politicians, who have a strong interest in making us feel that crime is a problem, are painting a different picture.
And it is a shame because despite the falling crime rate, fewer people are feeling safe in their homes, on the street and on public transport.
And they talk about the media creating false impressions and stereotypes.
With road deaths, though, the picture is exactly the opposite (more of that anon).
Trends measured by the Report on Government Services, produced by the Productivity Commission show that the crime rate falling for the following crimes: attempted murder, assaults, unlawful entry and motor-vehicle theft. (Comparisons are made between 1996 and 1997 or sometimes between 1996-97 and 1997-98.) There was a significant increase in only one crime, armed robbery. The increase in murder involved numbers too small to be significant (from one to three).
Comments from the judiciary indicate that the armed robbery increase can be mostly put down to one cause: drugs. But that is too hard for most politicians to deal with effectively other than to demand more police and to unnecessarily induce fear in the population.
The rise in armed robbery in the ACT is alarmingly steep. It bucks the downward trend of other crimes, even if that trend is slight.
In 1993 the armed robbery rate was 18 per 100,000 people. It has risen steadily to 37 per 100,000 in 1997 – more than doubling in four years.
Going on comments from the Bench, armed robbery is becoming the crime of choice for druggies. Often only small amounts are involved. The Lavender Hill Mobs get less opportunity as society becomes more cashless.
So if you eliminate the drug element, general criminality is falling. But people do not feel as safe.
The number of people who felt safe or very safe at home (day or night) or walking or jogging at night or on public transport at night fell between the two years. So the law-and-order campaigners are partly succeeding in their campaign of fear.
A say partly, because despite their best efforts, there is a general feeling of safety in the community. That’s right, the vast majority feel safe in their own homes (95 per cent in the day and 82 per cent at night) and nearly 40 per cent on public transport after dark and just over 40 per cent jogging or walking after dark. More people feel safe in the ACT than any other state or territory, and that despite the fact that it is the most urbanised jurisdiction.
Of course, you are much more likely to get injured in a car accident than get assaulted and about 10 times more likely to get killed in a car accident than murdered, but crime seems to be feared more.
It’s odd because people can do something about road injury and death but many chose not to.
The ACT has a large percentage of people who admit to speeding, but it has fallen from 80 per cent to 76 per cent in the past year. Over the two years the ACT rate is the highest in the country. It seems that if you give people the best roads in the country they burn up all the safety element in the good roads by travelling faster.
The general perception is probably that road deaths are falling or at least staying the same in the ACT. That has been the national trend. And people probably feel safer on the roads. But the fact is different. Roads deaths and injuries (requiring hospitalisation) per 100,000 vehicles have risen each year in the past five years in the ACT.
The ACT used to be the safest jurisdiction in Australia. No more. Tasmania now is. We come second, but South Australia is catching us. Every jurisdiction has fewer deaths and injuries per 100,000 vehicles now than five years ago – except the ACT.
There is some slow improvement in drink driving, too. About nine per cent of drivers admit to sometimes driving over the limit. Only NSW is better at 8 per cent.
We should learn form this. The Report on Government Services compares performance of the states and territories. It is not just a bean-counting exercise. Quality of services and quality of life are ultimately measured and presumably states and territories can adopt better practices from elsewhere to improve citizens’ lives. We can go beyond the childish practices of bragging about stealing each other’s sporting events or competing to see who can give the biggest freebie or tax break to industry while schools and hospitals are slumming it.
And it is not just government practice. The road injury figures show that citizens can learn from the comparison.
Much as I frown when Gary Humphries thumps the law-and-order drum, he makes a reasonable point about ACT drivers. We have the best roads in the country – despite some decline since self-government, yet we have blown our rating as the jurisdiction with the least death and injury.
We should ask why and investigate why. Several possibilities come to mind. The change to vehicle inspection is a possibility, but most evidence suggest poor vehicles is not the problem; poor driving is.
The absence of speed and red-light cameras is a more cogent reason. And that fits with general human behaviour.
Drivers tend to get to where they are going as quickly as possible commensurate with what they see as the risk. If roads or cars are improved they go faster, transferring the utility of lower risk into the utility of getting there sooner. A lot of drivers are too stupid to correctly assess the risk of death or injury. They don’t give it enough weight, so they risk their own lives and the lives of others unnecessarily. So if they cannot be educated about the need to consider that risk we just have to hit them with another risk factor: the risk of being caught, fined or having their licences suspended.
That has worked in other jurisdictions. And it worked here with falling tolls until about 1992. No additional risk factors have been introduced since then.
Let’s get on with it.