John Howard is now a politically crippled Prime Minister. His claims of an embrace, an avalanche and a mandate are absurd and grandiloquent. The reality, as distinct from the view from Kirribilli, is that he will have only a very narrow majority in the House of Representatives. That majority might be so narrow that it cannot be relied up to pass the legislation for the GST. Several National Party MPs are determined against it, or are at least determined against a GST on essentials. And even if he gets it through his own party room and the House of Representatives, it faces an impossible hurdle in the Senate.
The Democrats have done very well in the Senate. They appear to have picked up a certain two and more likely three seats to take their tally to 10 senators. It is a balance of power in its own right. After the new senators take their place on July 1 next year, the Democrats can side with either major party to form a majority to pass or block legislation.
The gain is significant enough for Democrats leader Meg Lees to claim a mandate to insist that the GST exempt food. The pertinence of her claim will be her power to give effect to it. If the Democrats insist on the food exemption, Mr Howard will have to yield to it, or surrender his beloved GST altogether. After Saturday night’s effort, he could not possibly contemplate and early double dissolution. Far too many Liberal MPs hold their seats by very small margins indeed to permit that. Moreover, the performance of Opposition Leader Kim Beazley in the campaign is a formidable obstacle.
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