ACT Liberal Senator Margaret Reid is on a knife edge, according to a Canberra Times Datacol opinion poll.
The poll gives Democrat Rick Farley a chance of causing an upset by taking the second ACT Senate seat from the Coalition, but much will depend on preferences.
Since the territories got Senate representation in 1975 the Coalition and Labor have always had one Senate seat each in each of the territories. In the past six election, Senator Reid has only had to rely on preferences once, in 1984. Usually she gets the quota of 33.3 per cent in first preferences.
The Datacol poll gives her just 22.6 per cent of the first preference vote, to Labor’s Kate Lundy 38.5 and Mr Farley on 16.1. After the undecided of 15 per cent is distributed it is Labor 45, Liberal 27 and Democrats 19.
It looks like a big gap, but Datacol questioning revealed that the preference split would make it very close.
Sixty-three per cent will vote above the line with party-determined preferences. The rest voting below the line were asked about preferences and whether the Democrats would be placed before the Liberals or after.
Senator Lundy’s 45 per cent means a 12 percentage point over-quota spill, nine percentage points of which would go to Mr Farley and three to Senator Reid.
The One Nation’s 3 points would split 2-1 to Senator Reid and the Greens’ 5 points 4-1 to Mr Farley.
That split would result in an even 33-33, rounded to the nearest point, leaving the preferences of the tiny parties and independents who polled about 1.4 per cent. It makes it very close.
The poll was taken last weekend and Monday and Tuesday night by phone with a sample of 588.
Nationally, an ACNielsen Poll in The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald today (Thursday 1 Oct), based on interviews on Monday and Tuesday, has the Labor primary vote slipping three percentage points to 40 per cent, with the Coalition up one point to 42. After preferences, it was a tied 50-50.
A Newspoll in The Australian on Tuesday had also showed the Coalition just ahead on primary votes, 43-42 per cent, reversing its figures a week earlier.
The Datacol poll has national significance. This is because territory senators take up their seats immediately, unlike senators elected from the states who take up their seats on July 1, next year.
If Mr Farley causes an upset, he will upset the balance in the Senate immediately. Prime Minister John Howard hopes to get through important legislation with the current Senate before July 1 next year after which more minor-party senators are likely to appear, making things more difficult. Mr Farley’s position could be critical. The Telstra and Wik legislation passed by one vote with the current Senate, for example.
Since Mr Farley announced his candidature, however, Senator Reid has lifted her profile and the Liberal Party more generally has worked harder in the ACT. Senator Reid’s higher primary vote is likely to count in her favour given the volatility of preferences. Also the national trend back to the Coalition is likely to help her. But it might be several days before the result is clear, especially in a school-holiday election with higher postal and pre-poll votes.
Last night Senator Reid acknowledged the likely tight result. She said, “” It would be a pity for the National capital not to have a Liberal senator to pursue issues for Canberra.”
She acknowledged that voters would be conscious of what public-service cuts had done to them personally, but she hoped they would see what the government had done for Canberra in capital works and in other ways.
Senator Lundy was concerned that so many Labor voters intended to vote Democrat. She warned voters not to take the Labor vote for granted. She noted that the Democrats had split their preferences half to Liberal and half to Labor.
The best protection against a GST and to give existing Democrats the balance of power would be to vote Labor first above the line for two Labor senators, she said.
Mr Farley said, “”The people of Canberra have recognised that an unique political opportunity exists. They do have a chance to influence national policy and to generate greater political leverage for the ACT.”