The Democrats are dreaming if they think they can get the second ACT Senate seat.
History and the system are against them.
The quota for a seat is 33.3 per cent plus one vote. (Because if two candidates get one third of the vote plus one each, there are not enough votes left for anyone else to get more than either of them.)
The Liberals have got the quota on first preferences in every election since ACT Senate positions were created in 1975 except in 1984 when they fell 1.4 per cent short. They very quickly got this on preferences. The ACT usually records the lowest Coaltion vote of any state or territory, but the second Senate seat is still almost guaranteed.
Minor parties did best in 1990, an election where minor parties did well throughout Australia. Norm Saunders got 17.6 of the primary vote. Even with the Nuclear Disarmament and Greens added they got 22.2 per cent, still more than 10 per cent shy of the seat, which the Liberal won on first preferences anyway. The Democrats got 12.8 per cent in 1977 and John Gorton got 12.2 per cent in 1975. All miles away from getting a seat.
I’ll back Liberals’ Margaret Reid to get the second Senate seat for as many bottles of Grange as anyone wants to lose on it.
The system of territory senators was set up to give the major parties one each in each territory and that is the way it has always been.
The territory senators, by the way, do not get six-year terms. Rather they get a term equivalent to one term of the House of Representatives (usually three years) and take up their seats when the new House of Representatives first sits after the election, whereas the senators for the states take up their seats on July 1 after the election.
It means that in the extremely unlikely event that the Democrats’ Rick Farley does get the second seat, he would take his seat immediately, upsetting the current Senate balance. Prime Minister John Howard is relying on the current Senate to keep its present numbers until July 1 next year. This is the Senate that passed his Wik Bill, his partial sale of Telstra and Workplace Relations Act with the help of various combinations of minor parties and independents. If Mr Farley replaced Senator Reid it would make passing the tax package and other legislation that much more difficult for Mr Howard.
But I don’t imagine he is losing any sleep over the prospect.
Election dates followed by percentage Liberal first preferences are as follows: 1975 43.6; 1977 38.4; 1980 37.1; 1983 35.9; 1984 31.9; 1987 34.0; 1990 35.9; 1993 35.0; 1996 39.0.