Nigerians will be celebrating the plan to return to democracy announced this week by the country’s military ruler General Abdulsalam Abubakar. The military in Nigeria have promised a return to democracy on several occasions in past decades, most were short-lived or never brought to fruition. Nigeria has been ruled by the military for 28 of the 38 years since independence in 1960.
The most recent attempt at civilian rule was in 1993. A transitional civilian council was created and elections held in June 1993, but annulled after Moshood Abiola looked as if he had won, much to the military’s displeasure. By the end of the year General Sani Abacha had taken over as head of state and began a repressive regime. When Abiola proclaimed himself head of state in June 1994 he was imprisoned. In November 1995 Abacha had nine civil rights activists, including leading novelist Ken Sar-Wiwa executed and Nigeria was suspended from the Commonwealth.
General Abacha then set in train yet another purported transition to democracy. But six weeks ago he died and was replaced by General Abubakar, who has now also replaced General Abacha’s plans for government.
General Abacha’s plans had been widely discredited and rightly so. General Abacha had created five political parties, all of whom (surprise, surprise) nominated him for the position of President in “”elections” scheduled for later this year. It would not have been a transfer to civilian rule. It would have merely meant General Abacha taking off his uniform and donning civilian clothes. It would not have been democracy while there was a prohibition on the formation of political parties and the imprisonment of so many political dissidents.
General Abubakar came to the job with a fairly clean slate. General Abacha could never afford a transition to true democracy because any new democratic rulers would have been under intense pressure to prosecute him for crimes against humanity and murder.
It is one of the great difficulties of the transition to democracy and one of the significant reasons that dictators cling to power. A balance has to be struck between the desire for justice and the need to transfer to civilian rule in an orderly way.
Initially there were fears that General Abubakar might go the way of his predecessor when Abiola, Nigeria’s most prominent detainee, died in prison of apparent heart disease earlier this month. There were suspicions of foul play and given Nigeria’s past those fears were reasonable. Abiola’s death sparked days of rioting.
Fortunately General Abubakar has now allayed those fears and it seems that Abiola, did indeed die from natural causes. His imprisonment by General Abacha was shameful and no doubt hastened his death.
Further evidence of General Abubakar’s good intentions came with his pardoning this week 10 people imprisoned after trumped up allegations of a coup plot in 1995. He order that the 10, including three prominent journalists and a well-known human rights activist, to be freed immediately. In his six weeks in office he has now freed dozens of political prisoners.
General Abubakar’s announcement this week of a timetable for democracy should give Nigeria a new start. General Abubakar seems to have got it right. Provided his plan is followed through Nigerians have much to hope for.
General Abubakar announced that the military rulers will hand over power to an elected civilian president on May 29, 1999, after free multi-party elections in the first quarter of the year. “”The new elected president will be sworn into office on the 29th of May, 1999,” Abubakar said. It is a remarkable outcome for General Abubakar after just six weeks in office and under great pressure following Abiola’s death. He needed time to consult fairly widely upon timing and the nature of the election. The 10-month period before the election is a reasonable time for political parties to get organised so elections can be held in a reasonably free and fair way. General Abubakar is to set up an independent electoral commission to conduct the election. He scrapped General Abacha’s corrupt earlier version and dissolved the five sham political parties.
It will not be easy to conduct the new election. Nigeria has been dogged by rivalry between the main racial groups which resulted in the horrific Biafran separatist war in the 1960s. Nigeria is the victim, like most African countries, of inappropriate colonial boundaries and colonial policies of divide and rule among African tribes. Nigeria has about 250 ethnic groups, but three main ones which engage in fierce rivalry: the Hausa-Fulani, the Yoruba and the Ibo. Geographically, the north, south and eastern sections are hugely different from each other, adding to economic and political tensions.
Economically, the country is highly dependent on oil exports and has a very weak industrial base. Industry makes up only 9 per cent of GDP. Nigeria is very rich in resources, but still has low per capita GDP.
So an election will by no means solve all of Nigeria’s problem. Nonetheless, it is an essential ingredient in improving the well-being of Nigerians who were falling backwards in the isolation caused by the military regime.
The Commonwealth should now take an active role in helping restore Nigeria to the community nations.